Live 3/6 QQ hand - value bet a 4-straight board?

[nolanfan34]

Probably an easy one, check up time though.

Live 3/6, full table. SB in this hand seems a bit tighter than most of the loose passives at the table. He and I had tangled in one previous hand, where I had opened with AK, flopped an A with two spades, he bet-3-bet the flop, and slowed down when I raised the turn. He had AK for a chop.

To the hand, two limpers, I raise black QQ in MP. 3 tighties to my left fold me the button. SB, BB, limpers come along for the ride. 10SB - rake to the flop.

Flop is J77 rainbow. Checked to me and I bet. SB calls, BB calls, one EP limper calls. 7 BB to the turn.

Turn T putting two spades out. Checked to me, I bet, only the SB calls. 9 BB.

River is an 8, no spade, for a final board of J77T8. SB checks. Bet for value here, right?

[Grease]

I think this is a really easy value bet because you beat any possible two pair holdings he might have.

That said, I think that it seems like you could fold to a C/R (pretty easily, I imagine) from this particular player. Since that is the case, it makes betting even more clear.

[SteelheadGLX]

I'd say no. Villian doesn't have a J, he'd CR the flop from the blind. It's a 7, or 9X on a bad day, T8 on a good one. Pot odds for the gs were there.

[nolanfan34]

Bump, anyone else? One vote for bet, one vote for check.

Does everyone fold to a check-raise if there's a bet? Seems like most of the times I've played live, a common river line people take when they hit their backdoor flush or straight is to pause, check their cards, pause again, then bet.

[W. Deranged]

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I'd say no. Villian doesn't have a J, he'd CR the flop from the blind. It's a 7, or 9X on a bad day, T8 on a good one. Pot odds for the gs were there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you assuming that our opponent knows what he is doing?

It is very incorrect to say a 7 is more likely than a J here. While a J is often NOT putting in any aggressive action here, if we get through the turn and SB hasn't check-raised, we can rule out a 7 with 80+% certainty (some odd players will wait all the way till the river on their "slowplays," but most come alive on the turn).

I bet here with confidence and expect to see Jx ooften, and sometimes to get hosed by the backdoor straight, but not often enough to merit not betting.

[TripleH68]

I bet.

A 7 is unlikely for SB. If he holds a 9 it would have to be 99, J9s or possibly T9s. Any of these hands he is more likely to bet out with on the river. Any J or pp is handing you another BB.

[nolanfan34]

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I bet.

A 7 is unlikely for SB. If he holds a 9 it would have to be 99, J9s or possibly T9s. Any of these hands he is more likely to bet out with on the river. Any J or pp is handing you another BB.

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This was my basic thought as well.

So I bet, and he now check-raises quickly in rhythm.

Fold or call?

[Grease]

I think that a fold is in order (unless you think this player is capable of a river C/R bluff, which I doubt he is.)

I think you pay off only the trickiest players here. I don't think this player is one of them.

[TripleH68]

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I bet.

A 7 is unlikely for SB. If he holds a 9 it would have to be 99, J9s or possibly T9s. Any of these hands he is more likely to bet out with on the river. Any J or pp is handing you another BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my basic thought as well.

So I bet, and he now check-raises quickly in rhythm.

Fold or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem you have is that villain's river bluff-raise may not be a bad play given the size of the pot and a thinking opponent(you). He also has a pretty obvious read on your hand. (I suppose a busted flush/straight draw is in his range of possibilities.)

Given the villain you described I don't mind a fold without any history. I think this because river folds in live games are so rare. Everybody pays off and there is no reason for villain to think you will not. Also the quick raising of your bet would lean me toward thinking he has you beat, especially if he lets out a smile/smirk while doing so.

If I have seen only a very small sample from this guy I would call only because his showing a bluff would ruin my mood for the rest of the day/week.

Curious to hear what you did?

[nolanfan34]

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I bet.

A 7 is unlikely for SB. If he holds a 9 it would have to be 99, J9s or possibly T9s. Any of these hands he is more likely to bet out with on the river. Any J or pp is handing you another BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my basic thought as well.

So I bet, and he now check-raises quickly in rhythm.

Fold or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem you have is that villain's river bluff-raise may not be a bad play given the size of the pot and a thinking opponent(you). He also has a pretty obvious read on your hand. (I suppose a busted flush/straight draw is in his range of possibilities.)

Given the villain you described I don't mind a fold without any history. I think this because river folds in live games are so rare. Everybody pays off and there is no reason for villain to think you will not. Also the quick raising of your bet would lean me toward thinking he has you beat, especially if he lets out a smile/smirk while doing so.

If I have seen only a very small sample from this guy I would call only because his showing a bluff would ruin my mood for the rest of the day/week.

Curious to hear what you did?

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Well, his check-raise really threw me off. The way the hand came down, I was really expecting that he'd have a J, possibly something like AT, or something like J8. I just couldn't imagine that he would check that board with a 9, given that it's somewhat scary.

I did think it was possible that he was making a move with a J, like KJ or AJ. Had I thought about that earlier hand though, I should have remembered how aggressive he was previously with top pair.

The pot was big enough that without a better read I decided the 10% chance he was bluffing was good enough to justify a call.

He had A9 of clubs. So much for reads. Serious ownage on the river. I'm not sure if he really pegged me as a thinking player, and therefore figured I'd have a hard time putting him on a 9 (it was 3/6 after all), or what, but either way I thought it was a hot check-raise.

My results-oriented side (which is probably 75% of my sides) thought I should have checked, thinking about it on the way home. But upon further thought I still think a bet is in order, given the number of J's that will pay off there.

I also think that against a somewhat thinking weak-tight player, this would be a great move to pull on a really scary river where there's a possible full house and straight or flush. In a big pot I bet there are times that could easily be a profitable move.