AQs - thoughts please

[The Dane]

Full Tilt $8/$16 6 max - 5 handed.

UTG is 50/7/1.6 and raises.
Hero is to his immediate left and re-pops it with AdQd.
BB cold calls (he is 48/14/1.7) and original raiser calls.

Flop comes 34Kr with one diamond.

BB checks, Original Raiser bets, Hero ?

Pot is 10.5 small bets, please throw me some thoughts if you got the time, thx.

[DrewOnTilt]

Count your outs.

3 ace overcards which may not be live - give yourself 1 out.
Backdoor flush draw - give yourself 1.5 outs.
Backdoor straight draw with 1 gap - give yourself 1 out.

You have approximately 3.5 outs to improve. You need to be getting well over 12:1 to make this call.

Fold.

[milesdyson]

I would give our aces 2 to 2.5 outs, and then I would still fold. If it were live and I could see BB holding chips to call (or holding his cards to fold), I would call.

[Municipal Hare]

Your backdoor broadway is an effective two-gapper. I give the running draws a shade under 2 outs.

The call rests on how well you think aces serve you at this point. Note how dry the flop is. Sets and reverse-dominating hands are only the thinnest slice of BB's cold-calling range, much less of UTG's opening range. With a PFR this low it's possible AKo belongs in the picture, but KQ-KT fit the action better. Your aces are surely worth two outs on average.

The dryness of the flop counts for something else: it enables you to call in the middle at 10.5:1 without fear of being trapped for two small bets nearly often enough to drag implied odds into the red.

Close one. I'd peel.

[marching_on_together]

It's a small pocket pair a fair amount of the time here so your Q outs are sometimes good. In my experience from this type of player this is rarely a bet 3 bet from villian with a monster. I would expect to see a smallish pair or a K with a kicker Q to 7. Hero probably has 5 outs and can peel, if raising was nearly guaranteed to give you a freecard i think thats ok too here.

[Dane S]

Welcome, fellow Dane. I think this flop is an easy fold, mainly cause you aren't closing the action. If you were, you could peel.

[siegfriedandroy]

villain raises k7s? im not sure he even raises k9s w/ that vpip (although low pfr's often raise quirky hands). If he has a king, then i'd say we have about 2 effective outs. I like folding, especially since we are not closing.

[siegfriedandroy]

I said 2. Perhaps 3ish is a better estimate. How about implieds? If we really have 3.5 outs, then we could probably peel if closing action. Still think it's a fairly clear fold though with one player to act.

[sonartec]

IMO he has AK here everytime, am i the only one who doesnt like preflop?

[wackjob]

easy muck for me. villain doesn't raise a hand here that doesn't have you in serious trouble once he has donked the flop. he might have KQs, but its likely AK a huge majority of the time, but either way, PFR7 is not raising KJ or worse UTG, which means you are drawing to BD runners, plus not closing the action means suck for you.