chances of 3 set, next hand quads

[Echelon]

i dealt 33, flop: 3xx
next hand at the same table
i dealt 33, flop: 33x

chances? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[Echelon]

bumpy

[pp262]

The chance of flopping a set is (2/50) x (48/49) x (47/48) x 3 = 11,5 %

Chance of flopping quads is (2/50) x (1/49) x 3 = 0,245%

Chance of flopping a set first and quads in the next hand:

11,5% x 0,245% = 0,028%

So this sequence will happen once in 3550 hands, given that you start with 33 in both hands.

The odds of being dealt 33 twice in a row, flopping a set the first time and quads the next hand, are:

(1/221) x (1/221) x 0,028% = 0,0000005766 %

The chance of flopping a set first and quads the next hand with the same pair is:

(13/221) x (1/221) x 0,028% = 0,000007496 %

[Echelon]

thank you!