Variance

[Justin A]

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two related comments:

1) my understanding is that the likelihood of having a downswing of X BB increases exponentially as your winrate decreases. Can any math guys confirm or deny this?

2) I think a lot of people are overestimating what sort of winrates are possible in the high stakes stars games.

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I'm not sure if exponentially is the right term, but it's certainly not linear so the point you're trying to make holds.