Semibluff flop. Golden turn. Dangerous river

ValarMorghulis · #1 01-13-2007, 12:59 PM

Villain is 18/15/3 and has an ATS of 30. (over 130 hands)

We haven't tangled much but I 3-bet his open a few orbits ago and he folded.

My plan when I called preflop was to c/raise most flops. (For everyone who is going to say raise or fold preflop.) As happened I hit a perfect flop for the c/r. Unfortunately he called. Then I hit a great turn.

River line?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($98.50)
CO ($102.54)
Button ($108)
SB ($8.55)
Hero ($109.85)
UTG ($87.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, Button raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero raises to $20, Button calls $14.

Turn: ($48.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $29, Button calls $29.

River: ($106.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

AggJedi · #2 01-13-2007, 01:12 PM

You have about 50BB left when you get to the river, in a 100BB pot. You can't bet with the intention to fold, because you'll just be getting offered too good of odds.

To be perfectly honest, and call it super nitty, but in situations like this, I would check-fold the river. I can't remember the last time I checked here, was put all in, called and ended up winning. Most pairs would check behind, same with a smaller straight or two pair or set. But I only see a flush betting this river.

Obviously if he bets something stupid like 10 you have to call, but if he puts you all I can't picture it being a proftable call.

I know you're all going to say that this opens me up to be bluffed by somebody representing clubs in their hand, but that's the risk i'm willing to take at 100NL to not get stacked when an obvious draw hits.

krazyace5 · #3 01-13-2007, 01:20 PM

turn raise is weak, raise more, I'd probably c/c river.

SirArthur · #4 01-13-2007, 01:23 PM

I'm going to say it anyway, fold p/f.
Flop C/R is fine I guess.

Lead out for more on the turn, I'd make it $40 or so, push river.

FishRoller · #5 01-13-2007, 01:26 PM

I'd say on the turn, $35. Prob c/c river, maybe let him bluff off or try some value from a K. If you bet, you're probably committed if he shoves, and if he shoves, its def flush (so u waste $ by betting). Honestly, fold this hand in the BB pf. The flop c/r is slightly weak-i'd c/r slightly more.

ValarMorghulis · #6 01-13-2007, 03:07 PM

Yeah, should of bet 35 on turn.

I can't see any reason to c/c on river. He'll check behind most of the hands I beat and push the ones that beat me. So I think it's between c/f and push. I decided that my hand was too good to c/f to a half pot bet so I pushed but maybe c/f is better because he shouldn't really be betting any worse hands, he'll probably push hands that I chop with and hands that beat me. I think it's close between pushing and c/folding.

If I had bet 35 on turn I think I'd have no choice but to push river.

Dan Bitel · #7 01-13-2007, 03:11 PM