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  #1  
Old 01-13-2007, 01:46 PM
MotorBoatingSOB MotorBoatingSOB is offline
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Default 200NL -- bluff this river?

Villain is 27/15 in 60 hands.

Hero has $362.40
Villain has $219.70

Hero has [9c] [Tc]
Villain raises to $7
2 folds
Hero calls $7
3 folds
BB calls $5

flop is [Ah] [9h] [7s]

Villain bets $12
Hero raises to $32
BB folds
Villain calls

Turn is [3c]

Villain checks
Hero bets $50
Villain calls $50

River is [Kc]

Villain checks

Hero ?

The rest of the hand clearly isn't the "standard" play, but should I be bluffing the river here ever? I think I can fold out AJ/AT most of the time, AQ some of the time, and 68/8T and random pocket pairs like all of the time.

How bad/good is a bet here?
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  #2  
Old 01-13-2007, 01:50 PM
recallme recallme is offline
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Default Re: 200NL -- bluff this river?

why do you want to fold out 68/t8?
Check turn call river is best play.
But so just check behind
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  #3  
Old 01-13-2007, 01:53 PM
Ben86 Ben86 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL -- bluff this river?

I would raise more on the flop. ~40. And then adjust the turn bet to be 3/4 pot. I strongly advocate a third barrel since youve gone this far. Interested to see results.
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  #4  
Old 01-13-2007, 01:58 PM
MotorBoatingSOB MotorBoatingSOB is offline
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Default Re: 200NL -- bluff this river?

[ QUOTE ]
why do you want to fold out 68/t8?
Check turn call river is best play.
But so just check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to fold out the missed draws (flush draws that don't include the [Kh] also), but most 1/2 players are folding marginal aces like AJ/AT/Ax to a river bet here -- those are the hands i'm interested in bluffing. I think typical 1/2 players are folding these these hands most of the time in this spot.

Missed straight draws aren't THAT big a factor here. Obviously those will fold, but I think he's on a straight draw a very small fraction of the time here.
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  #5  
Old 01-13-2007, 02:04 PM
MotorBoatingSOB MotorBoatingSOB is offline
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Default Re: 200NL -- bluff this river?

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise more on the flop. ~40. And then adjust the turn bet to be 3/4 pot. I strongly advocate a third barrel since youve gone this far. Interested to see results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you're saying, but the line I'm taking here is to try to look like I'm squeezing value out of my AK/AQ/set types of hands. Blowing someone off the pot early is pretty easy in this case I think, this is supposed to look like I'm stringing along a mediocre ace.
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  #6  
Old 01-13-2007, 02:30 PM
Ben86 Ben86 is offline
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Default Re: 200NL -- bluff this river?

Ok I understand what youre going for, only problem I may have with that is pricing in potential draws. With the goal of looking like youre squeezing value the river is an absolute must bet.
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