Not a whine, honest

[GiantBuddha]

Yeah, it's obvious that the guy has it. The only question is whether he's smart enough to know what "it" is. "it" could be AK, AA, or 33 to him. This is an absurd way to play top set. Very uncool, as harrington would say. If you're set over set, the money's going to the middle one way or another.

As an aside (which properly belongs in the BBV forum), I had an almost identical flop: K52 to my KK and the other guy had 55. He check raised me and we got it all in on the flop. The turn was a 5. Yeah, it sucked, but the point is, there's no need to overbet because the other guy wants to get it in as bad as you do.

So when someone gives you a ridiculous tell, you have to consider:

1) The accuracy of the tell
2) How close of a decision you have
3) How far the tell would lead you to deviate from the default strategy in this case

As for your hand, there's rarely a reason to fold middle set. Bottom set, maybe. But...

The possible outcomes here are:

1) You call and lose all your chips drawing to one out.
2) You call and double up, you now have 400BB
3) You fold and still have 196BB, the other guy has 204BB

If you think the tell is more than 50% reliable (meaning he'll have KK more than half the time), then this is a fold. How do you determine if the tell is more than 50% reliable? I don't know. But since there's no money in the pot, folding here isn't terrible. In a cash game. In a tournament, you've gotta double up some time, so it's harder to get away from the second nuts here. Personally, I'd call it and if he's got KK, I figure it wasn't my tournament to win.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, it's obvious that the guy has it. The only question is whether he's smart enough to know what "it" is. "it" could be AK, AA, or 33 to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I can buy that given Villain's lack of experience, my earlier "him picking up a tell" thesis is a red herring. I actually still believe that naive players can pick up on subconscious signals, but I question whether he understands enough to tell that this way of playing only makes sense vs. an underset.

So he clearly has a monster. It's just a question of what he sees as a monster. I agree that AK and 33* are in this range, as is AA. (He might expect you to call with KQ or something.) You're getting even money and ahead of the range, so it's an easy call.

Sorry it ended up so bad, though.

--
*Some players would play it fast preflop, just like at a WPT final table. I raise 33 for reasons probably unknown to this guy.

[Small Fry]

Based on your descriptions I think I would put the guy on either AA or KK preflop. Generally, new guys don't get that overexcited about AK and his manners suggest he is trying to do everything in his power to contain the rush of adreniline but just can't. Once the flop is out he gets even more excited. IF there was ever a time to fold a set this would be it (not sure I could though)

I'm thinking that at this point it's for your tourney life and with his tells there has to be better places you can find to get all your money in. But I could be wrong.

[argybargy2002]

Please don't fold a set here. Yes the cillain could have KK but he could equallly have AA, AK, KQ or any other rubbish containing a King. Calling this bet is generally +EV because even though you know he's excited, you have no way of knowing exactly what he's excited about.

[Kojak1984]

I called in a flash, and I'd do it again. I was just using the example to illustrate my point. But yes, I would never fold this hand. It was just one of those moments where you go, "He led for 20xpot with the nuts on a dry board...and I had one of the two hands I'd feasibly pay him off with..."

[blaqeyez]

Can't lay down the hand....even harrington says that suckers lay lay odwn middle set....if he got top set, then it was faith if all the money went in....dont think twice.

[MJBarbato]

I'm with Small Fry here. I would have folded the set with a newbie. They almost always at that point have you beat. Beginning of tourny in that situation = There will be better places for you to get all your chips in.

[cardcounter0]

Since so many people are saying that there is no way they could ever fold their set here, why was the newbie's all-in push "overbet" with top set so bad? Sounds like he is going to get called 90% of the time by middle set.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[AKQJ10]

Because he was plausibly going to make that much in three betting rounds from middle set anyway. And because he would also like to make some money from say the case king or a straight draw or whatever.

[winterGT]

Screw odds and percentages in this one, it's not online poker. Just from the description alone you can't put him on anything other than KK really. No other hand makes sense whatsoever. This you gotta fold. AA won't go so bananas on the flop since he didn't improve, and AK would give him TPTK, not at all consistent with his physiology.

Reminds me of something I read on p5s that happened in the PCA recently. This p5'er wakes up with aces, and raises. He is reraised, and puts in a 4bet. His opponent folds KK face up! Totally 100% based on his read, and he was right.

edit: you shoulda done the same. Fold your 55 face up while saying "nice kings", and destroy his confidence completely.