Line check: This villain can't fold an overpair

[twang]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you flop a set and lose

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough to make calling unprofitable? Numbers anyone?

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you flop a set and lose

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough to make calling unprofitable? Numbers anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're going to win 34/44 times you hit a set on the turn, lose 2/44 and chop 8/44.

Edit-assuming he doesn't have 77.

[AssFrister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you flop a set and lose

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough to make calling unprofitable? Numbers anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I understand you correctly you are stating you are 100% certain he has AA or KK, and you are 100% certain he will see a showdown every single time.

In that case, considering you are only 7.5-1 against to make a set or better and you are getting 11.5-1 I'd say its a call. I can't work it out because I don't know the probability of flopping a set and still going on to lose, but I'd be very suprised if that 4-1 overlay wasn't enough to cover for those times.

Regarding the flop decision, I figured it to be -EV of 0.3BB without figuring for rake.

Here is my math for critique:

On the flop 35/45 cards do not help and so you lose (25x35)/45 = 19.44

10 times you hit. On the river 34/44 give you the preflop pot, his flop bet, and his remaining $62.
8/44 times you chop the $26.5
2/44 times you lose your $25 call and your remaining $62

(34 x $113.5)/44 + (8 x 0.5 x 26.5)/44 - (2 x 87)/44 = 19.15

So hitting is worth $19.15 but missing costs us $19.44 for a loss of $0.29.

I haven't checked it, but obviously it will be correct since I'm so cool. (read: I've gone over it quickly a couple of times and *think* I know what I'm doing but have to make some sort of disclaimer because I don't have enough confidence in myself)

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sometimes you flop a set and lose

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough to make calling unprofitable? Numbers anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I understand you correctly you are stating you are 100% certain he has AA or KK, and you are 100% certain he will see a showdown every single time.

In that case, considering you are only 7.5-1 against to make a set or better and you are getting 11.5-1 I'd say its a call. I can't work it out because I don't know the probability of flopping a set and still going on to lose, but I'd be very suprised if that 4-1 overlay wasn't enough to cover for those times.

Regarding the flop decision, I figured it to be -EV of 0.3BB without figuring for rake.

Here is my math for critique:

On the flop 35/45 cards do not help and so you lose (25x35)/45 = 19.44

10 times you hit. On the river 34/44 give you the preflop pot, his flop bet, and his remaining $62.
8/44 times you chop the $26.5
2/44 times you lose your $25 call and your remaining $62

(34 x $113.5)/44 + (8 x 0.5 x 26.5)/44 - (2 x 87)/44 = 19.15

So hitting is worth $19.15 but missing costs us $19.44 for a loss of $0.29.

I haven't checked it, but obviously it will be correct since I'm so cool. (read: I've gone over it quickly a couple of times and *think* I know what I'm doing but have to make some sort of disclaimer because I don't have enough confidence in myself)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not correct because you're only looking at the river as if he has a set. For 8 of his 10 outs on the turn he makes a straight, not a set, in which case he's a near-lock (42/44 win, 2/44 chop.)

[AssFrister]

Ugh, might have guessed. Actually I took your numbers from above my post and didn't really bother thinking too much about what they meant.

Does this look any better?

Hit straight on turn. Two chop redraws against us.
8/45 [ (42*113.5)/44 + (2*0.5*26.5)/44 ] = $19.37

Hit set on turn. 34 safe cards give us pot. Eight give chop. Two set redraws against us.
2/45 [ (34*113.5)/44 + (8*0.5*26.5)/44 - (2*87)/44 ] = $3.83


19.37 + 3.83 - 19.44 = $3.76 profit.

If its wrong, screw it; I'm not doing it again [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[BobboFitos]

call