third man costs me money

[MRBAA]

Live 1-5 spread stud on the commuter train, 1-10 on river. $1 ante (dealer covers table, so it's $1 TOTAL not per man), $1 bring in. We're 4 handed, and my image is tight and solid. Mr. Tricky raises the bring in to $2 with a king in the door, Mr. Loose calls with a 9, I call with (AK)Q, bring in folds his trash card.

Mr. Tricky's little raise makes a pair of kings or big pocket pair likely here.

On fourth I catch a king making me high, neither of them catches great, I bet out the full $5 and get two calls. Same on fifth. On sixth, I catch a queen, giving me kings up with an open pair of queens. I bet and get two calls.

Now to the river, which is especially important in this game since the bet doubles. I'm pretty sure that Mr. Tricky started with kings, or maybe some other underpair. If he had aces, I think he'd have raised fifth or sixth. So I'd value bet against him alone, maybe $5 to get a call from unimproved kings or a hand like jacks up. The problem is Mr. Loose, who is capable of having anything, and I mean anything. His board makes a straight possible, or even a longshot flush draw. When he misses, he'll fold the river. If he hits little two pair, he'll probably call. But when he hits a straight, flush or even baby trips he'll raise, and I'll call because he is also capable of a bluff here.

So I check and mhig. I have yet to devise a better strategy and I'd love to hear what others think. Please, though, no advice that involves folding to a river raise from Mr. Loose -- you'll just have to trust me that this is not a winning long-term play in this spot.

[cgrohman]

"Mr. Tricky's little raise makes a pair of kings or big pocket pair likely here."

Then why did you call with high bags- especially since the ante- is so minimal? If he is going to call when he hits 2 small pair- or maybe with just Kings- and raise when he hits his long shot straight or flush- I see no downside in bet/folding.

[WhiteWolf]

With 2 players still in, you have to be willing to value bet here. If I have the action correct, Mr. Tricky is first to act after you? If so, and if he folds + Mr Loose raises, given your read I think you have to call. If Mr. Tricky calls + Mr Loose raises, then the pot is protected and you can fold (even though you say you didn't want that advice).

BTW, I also fold 3rd.

[trickyAAA]

Ignoring the loose call on third street, I would bet for value in this situation.

[Andy B]

Has anyone mentioned how much your hand sucks on third street yet? I think you have a clear value bet on the river. And I wouldn't dream of folding to a raise by Mr. Loose.

[davebwell]

Is the hand really that bad in a 4 handed game?

[Andy B]

It's really that bad when you're pretty sure that you're up against a pair of Kings.

[davebwell]

Somehow, I missed the one sentence 2nd paragraph. I think it's time for bed!

[MRBAA]

Yeah, my hand isn't great but I have a good read on Mr. Tricky, the bet is small and while the ante is minimal the game really plays like an overante game because it's so loose and passive on early streets that you can count on quite a bit of money going in the pot without players needing to have much. Plus the double bet on the river justifies a little early speculation, since if you do hit something you can (and often will) really get paid. So here, if I hit an A, or case King on fourth I can take the lead and if I hit Q, J or T on fourth, I can peel hoping to catch good on fifth.

On a meta-game level, I'm also the tightest player by a mile in this game, a solid winner and they know I've written a couple of poker books. So I try to err on the side of looseness when it's cheap early, espcially playing short, to avoid killing my action (not to mention avoid annoying the other players).

[MRBAA]

I think you're right. Mr. Loose definitely will bluff enough to make calling a raise mandatory. But I think between him backing into two little pair and Mr. Tricky hitting kings up worse than mine I probably can bet. It's pretty close, though. While these guys make some awful mistakes, they also have been playing a long time and won't just automatically pay off (or even call without any hope).

Had I been last to act I'd have had an easy $5 value bet/fold to a raise here. Neither Mr. Tricky nor Mr. Loose has been seen by me to check raise as a bluff.