($27t) ?? Tricky Bubble Spot

[Mike MacIntosh]

What is your pushing range in this spot?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t7440)
Button (t4225)
Hero (t865)
BB (t970)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with ??:
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t1200</font>, Hero ???

[Shillx]

Best case you can call like 35% of the time. The equity curve isn't linear because a tighter button gives you 2 extra reasons to fold. So if he is on the top 50% you can only call say 8% of the time and not the projected 17-18% (if you assume that 35% is right against ATC). This is all very rough because it is a tricky spot.

[Mike MacIntosh]

I had AQo in the actual hand. What you call or fold? Why?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I had AQo in the actual hand. What you call or fold? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any read on the button? I would call but is a significant mistake (-2% or so) if he is on the top 20%. If he is on the top 50% then a call looks slightly +EV. All of this assumes that the BB will not fold no matter what you do.

[AL5AcE]

I'd fold AQo here. Give BB a great chance of busting first with 1-2 random hands. If BB gets lucky, you can get lucky later as well.

In these situations I think your stack sizes and blind positioning matter a lot, and I'd need a top quality hand to risk my life here when BB could just be squashed.

[Burno]

AQ is an easy fold for me here. BB will be forced AI one of the next two hands. I don't think I call here without 99+ maybe AKs.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Any read on the button?

[/ QUOTE ]

While we were playing, I would expect him to be raising with a very wide range of hands. Probably 50-70%.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
If BB gets lucky, you can get lucky later as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not like relying on luck. BB will have a very decent stack, if he doubles on this hand after we fold. IMO, if BB gets lucky, we will be bubbling a high percentage of the time. Because we will have severely crippled our own stack, where winning an AI will not even cover 1 orbit around the table. Putting ourselves in a position, needing to win multiple AI's to compete for third.

[ibakepie]

call

[guenttrs]

I dont agree Burno here.
BB is not forced allin. It seems to me that the blinds kill us before him. When Hero and BB fold this hand, Hero has to push the next hand against the big chipleader Co with only 865 chips, while bb can wait with his 670 chips. If we dont push against co, the next blind will kill us.