Too passive or played perfectly

[comic2b]

Poker Stars
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) hero is MP1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
hero checks, MP2 checks.

Results:
Final pot: 5.75BB

[morningstar]

dunno don't know mp2 :-)

against random opp i don't mind that line

[bbartlog]

Bet river. MP2's check on the turn makes it very very unlikely that he has one of the missing Qs. Therefore you are almost certainly good for high. Opponent might not have a low, and might fold even if he has a bad one. Unlikely, but I think you're risking very little in betting the river.

Someone else might make a case for raising the turn. I wouldn't, for fear of a Q, but I'm probably being wimpy :-)

[comic2b]

Great idea. The reason I didn't is the way I played the hand I think villian has to put me on aces or a A2 with wheel backup. If you do spike the ace I think the play is to go for the checkraise. He smelled it and checked behind. On river he might have a queen and likely has some type of low. I think that's what he needs.

For me to raise in MP1 this guy knows I have aces or A2 with some more stuff going for it.

I do think I should of bet river though like you said. Just for those instances where he has a bad low that he would fold.

[wackjob]

am I missing something here? you raise PF, ok great, then you get raised on a 2flush paired board that you got no piece of and you call? dunno about you, but thats insta muck territory to me.

[Tuco]

Why on earth did you call the flop raise? To chase for half? Your main concern from the two hands I have seen is you like to draw for half. This will bust you in this game.

Bet/fold flop.

Tuco.

[bbartlog]

This is only a fold if opponent hardly ever raises. If his raise means it's certain he has a Q in his hand (or 55) then sure, fold it. But I would expect many opponents to also make this move with the flush draw or a single 5 in hand, or a pair (and maybe even with nothing at all), especially if they think that your pfr means it's likely you have a low-type hand (A2xx) hand and that you might fold to pressure here.

[wackjob]

[ QUOTE ]
This is only a fold if opponent hardly ever raises. If his raise means it's certain he has a Q in his hand (or 55) then sure, fold it. But I would expect many opponents to also make this move with the flush draw or a single 5 in hand, or a pair (and maybe even with nothing at all), especially if they think that your pfr means it's likely you have a low-type hand (A2xx) hand and that you might fold to pressure here.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is a fold if you like money. period. you have no hi, no lo, no draw.

[bbartlog]

Maybe against this particular opponent it's a fold. But surely you can see that always folding in this spot is a losing strategy in general? If opponent only raises with Q/Q5 or 55 (15% of the time or so), ok, fold; you're going to be paying 1.5BB or 2.5BB for a 16% chance at half of a 8BB/10BB pot and might get quartered even if you pull out a low. But if opponent also raises with suited hearts or a 5 or KK in hand, you have a shot at the high. And while the backdoor low doesn't provide enough equity by itself to chase on this hand, it really lowers the bar as far as the amount of high-side equity you need to call (especially against one opponent, where you know you can limit the damage on later streets).
As regards chasing the low, the above makes it seem more -EV than it is, the key being that some of the time you don't pay the 1BB on the turn because you fold.
10.5 SB in pot, we pay 1SB to see the turn:
20/45 we get a low card (pay another BB as opponent bets)
25/45 we get no low card and fold (this is not how it played out, but just by way of general example...): (EV so far is -25/45 * 1SB=-.27BB)
16/44 on the river we make our nut low, getting half the pot (EV from this is 20/45*16/44*7.75BB/2=+0.63BB)
28/44 no low and we fold (EV from this is 20/45*28/44*-1.5BB=-.42BB)

So the low chase is -EV, but only by .06BB. You don't need much of a high draw or much of a chance the opponent is bluffing to call here.

[wackjob]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe against this particular opponent it's a fold. But surely you can see that always folding in this spot is a losing strategy in general? If opponent only raises with Q/Q5 or 55 (15% of the time or so), ok, fold; you're going to be paying 1.5BB or 2.5BB for a 16% chance at half of a 8BB/10BB pot and might get quartered even if you pull out a low. But if opponent also raises with suited hearts or a 5 or KK in hand, you have a shot at the high. And while the backdoor low doesn't provide enough equity by itself to chase on this hand, it really lowers the bar as far as the amount of high-side equity you need to call (especially against one opponent, where you know you can limit the damage on later streets).
As regards chasing the low, the above makes it seem more -EV than it is, the key being that some of the time you don't pay the 1BB on the turn because you fold.
10.5 SB in pot, we pay 1SB to see the turn:
20/45 we get a low card (pay another BB as opponent bets)
25/45 we get no low card and fold (this is not how it played out, but just by way of general example...): (EV so far is -25/45 * 1SB=-.27BB)
16/44 on the river we make our nut low, getting half the pot (EV from this is 20/45*16/44*7.75BB/2=+0.63BB)
28/44 no low and we fold (EV from this is 20/45*28/44*-1.5BB=-.42BB)

So the low chase is -EV, but only by .06BB. You don't need much of a high draw or much of a chance the opponent is bluffing to call here.


[/ QUOTE ]

you are trying to make some weird twist of math to prove that you should peel this flop. i promise you that if you peel this flop as your normal play it is going to cost you money, and probably a lot of money. too often you will get caught chasing for 1/2 or 1/4 and all those little bets on the flop are really going to add up. folding the flop here is the correct play, i don't even think its close. the times that you get something you like on the turn and then see the river and are still smoked are really going to cost you a lot. micro-analyzing this hand is retarded, in online poker you are playing a large quantity of hands and you want to make the best decisions on the fly, usually because you are multi-tabling, but even if not, you don't want to put yourself in situations that are super hazardous like this with the off chance that you will occassionaly be making a correct play, because the majority of the time you are not.