50NL 6max- Calling all-in with AKs PF with full stacks

[Imrahil]

Villain is a regular and is 18.5/13/3 over almost 400 hands. He's tag but not that great of a player. Like once he raised in the BB with QJo after the entire table limped and he only raised to like $3.

This hand happened last round:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($8.95)
Button ($154.55)
Hero ($49.70)
BB ($52.40)
UTG ($40.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: $9.75

So on to the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($151.80)
Hero ($50.45)
BB ($56.10)
UTG ($40.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $151.8</font>, Hero calls $43.45 (All-In).

I was getting about 1.32 to 1 odds so I have to win about 43% of the time to break even.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

82,190,592 games 0.005 secs 16,438,118,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.143% 37.47% 08.67% 30798837 7126674.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 53.857% 45.19% 08.67% 37138407 7126674.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }


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So I'm assuming that this is a slightly +EV call right? I think if I factor in the chance that he's possibly pushing with a marginal hand like KQs my EV goes up more.

[kazana]

You might be overly optimistic with 88+, I wouldn't expect anything below TT to push.

Still leaves you at 45.7%, though. Even if you'd only take QQ+, you're above 45%.
If you add in some other random "OMFG, I push, you [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored]!" hands, you're even in better shape.

[bozzer]

Have you included the relative probabilities of these hands actually getting dealt? I don't think Stove does this for you, but I might be wrong.

e.g. a pp has a 0.45% probability of getting dealt to a player
an unpaired hand (suited and offsuit) has a 1.5% (i think) prob of being dealt to a player.

I use http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php for the probabilities.

[homeslice]

I think calling his push sux...

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
You might be overly optimistic with 88+, I wouldn't expect anything below TT to push.

Still leaves you at 45.7%, though. Even if you'd only take QQ+, you're above 45%.
If you add in some other random "OMFG, I push, you [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored]!" hands, you're even in better shape.

[/ QUOTE ]'

I included 88 just because I thought he may be annoyed that I've re-raised him twice in the SB after his button raise.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
I think calling his push sux...

[/ QUOTE ]

In a vacuum it sux but doesn't the first hand push it towards a call?

By the way, I much rather be the one pushing but there's nothing I could have done about that.

[Javanewt]

I wouldn't do it, but that's my gut reaction. I lose too often with AKs or AKo, especially at low limits. I lost with it three times in five hands last night against short-stackers who went all in pf. One had 33, I hit an A, he hit a flush on the river. Others had lower connectors (one gapped) and both hit. I know everyone seems to love AK, and I know the math says it's a good hand, but it gets beaten too often for me to risk my stack on it. Sorry, no math or odds or probability involved in my thinking--just my limited experience and gut instinct. Flame if you wish.

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't do it, but that's my gut reaction. I lose too often with AKs or AKo, especially at low limits. I lost with it three times in five hands last night against short-stackers who went all in pf. One had 33, I hit an A, he hit a flush on the river. Others had lower connectors (one gapped) and both hit. I know everyone seems to love AK, and I know the math says it's a good hand, but it gets beaten too often for me to risk my stack on it. Sorry, no math or odds or probability involved in my thinking--just my limited experience and gut instinct. Flame if you wish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, that's not the best way to think about poker. "OMG, I've lost with AA three times in a row, I'm just going to fold it from now on."

[Sweir]

If you think that the range used in poker stove is accurate then calling the push is +EV as your getting good enough pot odds. If you think that you are being optimistic with this range then it is probably just -EV. Pretty read / situation dependant call.

[Skipjack]

I wouldnt call all my chips with this hand in a cash game. Its likely to be a coin flip.