Should I hedge this "bet"? What is the highest EV move?

[King Yao]

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...+370 on Seattle
...
Bet $200 on Seattle, for a win of $940 if Seattle wins.

I'm obviously missing something here, they must take a percentage somewhere?

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You just multiplied wrong. $200 x 3.7 = $740

[MCS]

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The money line is +355 for Seattle, so their projected odds of winning the game are 100/455 or 22%. Assuming it's 50/50 against the spread, it breaks down as follows:

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You got it!

[Oatmeal]

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Bet $820 on Chicago, for a win of $200 if Chicago wins.
Bet $200 on Seattle, for a win of $940 if Seattle wins.

It cost you $1120 to win $1140.

I'm obviously missing something here, they must take a percentage somewhere?

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And you added wrong 820+200=?

[DrJ]

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Bet $820 on Chicago, for a win of $200 if Chicago wins.
Bet $200 on Seattle, for a win of $940 if Seattle wins.

It cost you $1120 to win $1140.

I'm obviously missing something here, they must take a percentage somewhere?

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And you added wrong 820+200=?

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Yeah, I noticed that. My math is pretty stupid on that one. I multiplied differently for the 2 bets, and then I added wrong on top of it. HA!

So, I do have this money line thing correct though?

When it says Seattle is +364, if I bet $100 on Seattle I would have $464: The $364 for the win, and I get to keep my original $100 risked.

Or, do I only have $364 if the bet pays off, and they keep the $100 risked?

[New001]

You get your $100 back. Otherwise, think of what would happen if you bet on Seattle +100?

[boscoboy]

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Also, as we learned during the Mansion promo, hedging is for pussies. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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[DrJ]

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Also, as we learned during the Mansion promo, hedging is for pussies. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Yeah, I do understand that I'm sacrificing some EV to do it. But it's $2150 here. Of which I can guarantee 78.6% (1690).

While betting $1690 to win $460 is a good bet according to any odds I can find, (I'd have to bet $1860 for that same $460 at pinnacle) I don't gamble with $1690.

If I could only guarantee 50%, 60% of the money, I would easily let this ride. When it's almost 80%, I'm starting to getting a little pussified...

I'm going to be REALLY pissed if Da Bears lose this game. If I lose $2150 on top of that - I'll be FUMING. If they win, the fact that I gave up $460 isn't going to be the #1 thing on my mind...

[JasonK]

Just put the $460 on Seattle and be happy with your $1700. You're sounding fairly risk averse here.