AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.

[johno]

Villain is 19/3/0.6 after 60 hands. First cold-call. Only 3 to SD, all won, including slow-played set of Jacks in SB vs. PFR.

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, 5 folds.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.5SB, 2 players)
hero?

I was concerned about betting, and having all hands I beat fold, and just being called down by mid-pairs, and check-raised on turn by queen (or checking turn and having to fold to villain bet).

So my plan was to check the flop, raise a flop bet, fold to a three-bet, otherwise b/f the turn. My aim was to induce bluffs by worse hands, and to try and get midpairs to fold. Main risk is giving a free card.

Any thoughts?

[mvoss]

This looks like a pretty standard c-bet to me. You're getting 5.5-1 on your bet and you can safely fold to a raise, so just bet and be happy to take it down UI.

Your plan is to c/r a 19/3/0.6 player. What makes you think that he'll bet a worse hand and what makes you think you aren't beat when he decides to bet?

[ninjaunderwear]

Knowing that if you bet, you'll only be called by better hands is a pretty strong case for betting. You can then likely check/fold the turn against such a passive opponent.

[nach0king]

Grunch

He's not aggressive so giving a free card may well be a possibility, despite this being his first cold call. And remember the tendency to slowplay some people get as soon as they hit trips/a set.

Has he checkraised at all this session? That, to me, seems more a pertinent question than whether or not he's cold-called.

With the information given, I'll bet/fold. I count 6-7 outs here (sneak-posting at work or I'd really give it more thought) and with the BDFD potentially needing you to call two BB to see, it doesn't seem worth it.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
I count 6-7 outs here (sneak-posting at work or I'd really give it more thought)

[/ QUOTE ]

Closer to 3-4, I'd say.

[nach0king]

How so?

I'm counting the Js as well because if we put him on a queen now then we're folding, surely?

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I was concerned about betting, and having all hands I beat fold

[/ QUOTE ]

There is nothing wrong with this result.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
How so?

I'm counting the Js as well because if we put him on a queen now then we're folding, surely?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, you have to discount the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] outs as they make a flush possible. Then, the remaining outs I count as half, as he might be drawing out on us or slowplaying some Q or whatever.

So, we have: 1,5 for the BDFD, 1 each for A and J, and 0,5 or so (it's probably completely worthless, but to be generous) for the BDSD. Makes 4 outs.

[johno]

I'm not sure how much you can read into the numbers after 60 hands. After 130, this guy was 20/8/1 - not super aggressive, but not passive either.

Even passive players may be tempted to bluff bet a paired flop, following a check by the PFR.

Why is previous check-raising important? He has position. He did check-raise on the turn with his slow-played jacks.

I think that previous cold-calling is important, as it suggests a possible range of hands.

So my thinking is -

If he has a queen, he'll check the flop and raise the turn (vs. smooth call a flop-bet with a view to raising the turn)

If he has a better hand than me without a queen (pocket pair, possibly AK) then he seems likely to calldown. If he checks the flop through then I get a free card. If he bets the flop and I raise, then bet the turn, representing a queen or high pocket pair, then I may get him to fold.

If he has a worse hand than me (probably suited connector, AT, KJ, maybe KT,JT) and checks the flop through, then he gets a free card. He is still likely to fold to a turn bet. And he may bluff bet (a non-zero% of the time), folding to a C/R or subsequent turn bet.

Also, there is a risk of a flop raise by a flush draw.

So, I'm wondering if the upside of my plan outweighs the limited downside???

[Watkins]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a pretty standard c-bet to me. You're getting 5.5-1 on your bet and you can safely fold to a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

How many people actually bet/fold the flop, whether c-betting or otherwise? I seem to remember that there was a general view that you should avoid this as it encourages people to be more aggressive against you.

Does that go for every situation? What about when you have very few outs if behind (like here) and are planning to fold the turn UI anyway.