Razz: Checking 6th to induce a bet or river call - Page 2

dsaxton · #11 01-09-2007, 03:26 AM

I don't get it. You have a near-nut hand, and you check it in position against a lame calling station who has been calling you the whole way? I thought the object of this game was to make money.

*TT* · #12 01-09-2007, 04:40 AM

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Maybe I'm missing something, but this smacks of fancy play syndrome. I think you're going to be missing a bet a fair amount of the time.

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I'm also going to get called on the river more often than if I had bet 6th to keep me honest, and sometimes (I admit rarely) I even get an extra bet in there on the river making the equivalent of what would happen if I bet 6th. I admit it looks like FPS, but after a lot of thought about 6th street-river plays I believe my line shows a slightly greater return.

In the end it all comes down to is his hand and a bit of Bayes Therum applied. Assuming his hand is not strong (as I assumed in this hand)- say he is willing to call 6th 75% of the time and fold the river unless he improves, or call my river bet 90% of the time to keep me honest reguardless if he improves or not. I make almost 1/4 of a bet more with my play. Conversely if the villain improves in either scenario I might earn an extra bet on the river if I bet 6th, but I am very likely to earn an extra river bet if I check 6th.

In short, checking 6th street shows a slightly better result in the long run and also fantastic for the meta game if anyone is paying attention.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Andy B · #13 01-09-2007, 04:47 AM

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Assuming his hand is not strong (as I assumed in this hand)- say he is willing to call 6th 75% of the time and fold the river unless he improves, or call my river bet 90% of the time to keep me honest reguardless if he improves or not. I make almost 1/4 of a bet more with my play.

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Aren't you ignoring the fact that when he calls sixth, he will at least sometimes call seventh as well, and most of the time it will be with a worse hand than your Six?

*TT* · #14 01-09-2007, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming his hand is not strong (as I assumed in this hand)- say he is willing to call 6th 75% of the time and fold the river unless he improves, or call my river bet 90% of the time to keep me honest reguardless if he improves or not. I make almost 1/4 of a bet more with my play.

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Aren't you ignoring the fact that when he calls sixth, he will at least sometimes call seventh as well, and most of the time it will be with a worse hand than your Six?

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I am not ignoring that, I think that possibility is low unless he improves on 7th based on the probability of his hand range and his player type. And since I checked on 6th street if he improves I may get a raise in on 7th.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Johnny#5 · #15 01-09-2007, 05:10 AM

If he calls 6th 75% of the time and he improves on 7th 25% of the time then you will get your 90% of a bet anyways. I think you're significantly underestimating the % of times he'll call 6th and 7th. If he called 5th, why wouldn't he call 6th when he catches good and you bad? Unless he misclicked on 5th I would expect a call on 6th here >90% of the time.

2461Badugi · #16 01-09-2007, 07:46 AM

No one will ever fold this sixth street.

Alex/Mugaaz · #17 01-09-2007, 07:56 AM

I think your general idea is fine and I'm guessing you realized it a short while ago and because of that applied it to a hand it could be applied to. In reality the standard was better here. Nothing wrong with the idea, just using it in this specific hand.

SCSTWG · #18 01-09-2007, 09:34 AM

Amazing that he is playing Q-10-3. As bad as he is, I am still surprised that he calls on your 5th street bet when he pairs his 10. Given your knowledge of him being in 71% of the hands, I think he is calling until he is completely dead. I like your perspective though because I think if you bet 6th there is a 50/50 chance he folds and by giving him a chance to see another card you have a much better chance of getting the last bet out of him with virtually no chance of being beaten. Interesting hand, but I think I bet 6th and take my chances if he is that bad.......and he appears to be "that bad".

blee24 · #19 01-09-2007, 10:34 AM

by the way, what level is this at? I hardly ever see players _that_ loose at the micro-levels on stars and FT...drool...

big e · #20 01-09-2007, 10:38 AM

The main issue I have with not betting 6th is at this stage you have a A2456 and the villain has a board with a 236 if the villain had an A in the hole A236 the villain would only need to draw a 4 to win or a 5 to split. At this stage you don’t know you are going to catch a wheel on 7th.

So if it really worth the risk of not betting 6th and gain a potential fold and guaranteeing winning the hand there against a check and possibility losing the hand on 7th.

Whilst I view this as very unlikely especially considering your knowledge of the villains betting pattern you only need to get this wrong 1 time in 10 to lose money. Current pot 5 BB potential additional bet .5 BB assuming the calling percentages you quoted.

Also can you tell us what were the stakes involved.