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#1
01-09-2007, 08:40 AM
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AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
Villain is 19/3/0.6 after 60 hands. First cold-call. Only 3 to SD, all won, including slow-played set of Jacks in SB vs. PFR.
Cryptologic Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, 5 folds. Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5.5SB, 2 players) hero? I was concerned about betting, and having all hands I beat fold, and just being called down by mid-pairs, and check-raised on turn by queen (or checking turn and having to fold to villain bet). So my plan was to check the flop, raise a flop bet, fold to a three-bet, otherwise b/f the turn. My aim was to induce bluffs by worse hands, and to try and get midpairs to fold. Main risk is giving a free card. Any thoughts? 
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#2
01-09-2007, 08:50 AM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
This looks like a pretty standard c-bet to me. You're getting 5.5-1 on your bet and you can safely fold to a raise, so just bet and be happy to take it down UI.
Your plan is to c/r a 19/3/0.6 player. What makes you think that he'll bet a worse hand and what makes you think you aren't beat when he decides to bet?
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#3
01-09-2007, 03:36 PM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a pretty standard c-bet to me. You're getting 5.5-1 on your bet and you can safely fold to a raise [/ QUOTE ] How many people actually bet/fold the flop, whether c-betting or otherwise? I seem to remember that there was a general view that you should avoid this as it encourages people to be more aggressive against you. Does that go for every situation? What about when you have very few outs if behind (like here) and are planning to fold the turn UI anyway.
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#4
01-09-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This looks like a pretty standard c-bet to me. You're getting 5.5-1 on your bet and you can safely fold to a raise [/ QUOTE ] How many people actually bet/fold the flop, whether c-betting or otherwise? I seem to remember that there was a general view that you should avoid this as it encourages people to be more aggressive against you. Does that go for every situation? What about when you have very few outs if behind (like here) and are planning to fold the turn UI anyway. [/ QUOTE ] SSHE recommends making a loose call to a flop raise, only when it was otherwise close. This was a leak of mine for a long time because of missing that nuance.
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#5
01-10-2007, 11:02 AM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
[ QUOTE ]
How many people actually bet/fold the flop, whether c-betting or otherwise? I seem to remember that there was a general view that you should avoid this as it encourages people to be more aggressive against you. Does that go for every situation? What about when you have very few outs if behind (like here) and are planning to fold the turn UI anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Given the info in the OP I don't think we should be too concerned about bet/folding against this player. He is pretty tight and not very aggressive. In general you should be bet/folding much more against passive villains than aggressive ones.
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#6
01-09-2007, 08:52 AM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
Knowing that if you bet, you'll only be called by better hands is a pretty strong case for betting. You can then likely check/fold the turn against such a passive opponent.
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#7
01-09-2007, 10:02 AM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
Grunch
He's not aggressive so giving a free card may well be a possibility, despite this being his first cold call. And remember the tendency to slowplay some people get as soon as they hit trips/a set. Has he checkraised at all this session? That, to me, seems more a pertinent question than whether or not he's cold-called. With the information given, I'll bet/fold. I count 6-7 outs here (sneak-posting at work or I'd really give it more thought) and with the BDFD potentially needing you to call two BB to see, it doesn't seem worth it.
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#10
01-09-2007, 11:04 AM
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Re: AJs, one cold caller, 2 queens on flop.
[ QUOTE ]
How so? I'm counting the Js as well because if we put him on a queen now then we're folding, surely? [/ QUOTE ] First of all, you have to discount the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] outs as they make a flush possible. Then, the remaining outs I count as half, as he might be drawing out on us or slowplaying some Q or whatever. So, we have: 1,5 for the BDFD, 1 each for A and J, and 0,5 or so (it's probably completely worthless, but to be generous) for the BDSD. Makes 4 outs.
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