Any way I am getting away from this hand?

[houstonCT]

last nite live MTT NL 30 person, like poker superstars format, this was the free roll at end. Chip count depending on how many final tables and position at final tables made.

I am MP, eight handed. UTG calls, folds to me, I limp for 100, 2 LP callers, both blinds as well. I have 66.

Flop is 6d5d9c. Checks to me, I bet the pot (600). Button is the only caller, turn comes a 5, I check, he checks. River is Ad. I tanked for about 5 seconds, looked at his chips, he had about half of what I did, put him all in, he had his chips in before I did. He had pocket 9s.

Anyone good with %, what are the odds that I am running into one of the only two hands that worry me, 99 or 55?

Just curious, I saw no way to stop from losing a lot of chips on that hand. Even betting the turn, because I wouldnt bet all that big, wouldnt want to run him off, so he could still be chasing diamond flush.

Really thought that was the hand that was gonna get me rolling, instead chopped my legs out.

[seke2]

Good god no. You were going broke there every time man. The odds of running into that are somewhere south of slim and not far north of none. If you don't lose most of your chips on this hand, you're playing weak/tight.

[BPA234]

Set over set when you have the other player covered? You double him up everytime!

[betgo]

No offense to the new poster, but maybe this belongs in the BBV forum.

[CybrPunk]

Keeping in mind you're a new poster here, any time you have a set over set situation that breaks you just know that you probably played it right.

On that board you're still ahead of A5, 56, and 59 as well as any other hand with a naked ace or 5 and pocket pairs, only losing to AA, 99 and 55. He could even have 2 diamonds and have made a flush on the river. You can't possibly consider folding here no matter what the action.

If you went broke you played it just fine.

[FlopmasterP]

the only thing you can do here is lose

[RichC.]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense to the new poster, but maybe this belongs in the BBV forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think this is a bad beat. To me, a bad beat is someone hitting their 4 outer on the river. Losing a hand you are more than a 90% favorite to win, now thats a bad beat. This is just a set over set hand.

Can you give credit for a bigger set or quads, doubtful. You just have to shrug this one off and since you were behind PF and beyond. With 66, you probably are calling an all-in from a short stack anyway.

[houstonCT]

yeah, i didnt see it as a bad beat in any way at all. i was behind all the way. I was actually mostly curious as to what the odds where that i am running into one of the three hands that can beat me. I think I said in original post there was only two hands that could beat me, 55 and 99, but AA as well, pointed out in previous reply.

Anyways, thanks for replies.

[geestyle]

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone good with %, what are the odds that I am running into one of the only two hands that worry me, 99 or 55?



[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if i'm wrong - I think its around 109-1 or 0.9% based on there's 12 ways of dealing the hands 55 or 99 out of 1326 that beat you.

[rms39]

Well, even if aces did theoretically beat you, there is no way he'd have aces. 2 limpers in front of him and the blinds to follow, he'd have to be crazy to limp. With the 55, theres only one way he can have it (the other 2 fives) and with the 99, theres 3 ways. (even if we count aces, tahts only 3 more ways). So 7 out of 1326 is about half a percent or .3% if you assume he doesnt have AA. There are 16 ways he could have hit a straight, a bunch of ways to have a flush, and even a lot of ways he could have had a lower boat, and those are only a few that he could call you with. So, obviously checking here or thinking at all about getting away from this hand is completely unreasonable.