The Paradox of Worthless Pairs - Trouble at $10NL6max

Frosteater · #1 01-08-2007, 02:48 PM

First of all thanks to everyone who's willing to read this. I need serious help. Good news first, I finally got PokerTracker and I love it. I played a lot during the last four days and build me a fine little sample size of 11'172 hands. Just to see I'm down 0.8 BB/100. At $10NL. And this, which you'll agree with me upon, is absolutely unacceptable. Now it would be easy to assume I suck at Poker and should pursue an easier pasttime activity. Stamp collecting or something like this. But wait, I love the game and I think I'm doing not that bad, despite what my winrate might suggest. Let's take a look at my main stats:
17.23/14.51/3.04
Though I don't know 100% how to judge that, I've read enough around here to know that this isn't too bad. I even have one of those small little eagle icons sitting next to my screen name. Small thinks like this ... *sigh* ... gotta love 'em.

So I've decided to plow through all that data to find out, why the hell I'm a loosing player. I think I found the answer and if you're still with me after all this pointless blah, I'd really need some help here, because the shocking truth seems to be:

I can't play pairs. Not for the life of mine.

Now, to understand where I'm pointing at, let me first introduce my playing style, then toss a few numbers at you and last but not least we'll look the hand history archive up.

I think the way should be common around here. I basically learned it while lurking the forums. Good starting hand selection, positional awareness, raising every hand I'm in pre-flop and following up with a c-bet virtually every time. Especially Tien's 6Max Fundamentals has been opening my eyes and got me from semiTight-Passive to what I assume to be Tight-Aggressive and I try my best to emulate that style. A major part of this is taking down pots with c-bets. It's when that doesn't work but I have a hand, where the trouble starts.

I'll explain that further using some solid PT numbers.

Looking through the Misc Stats tab, the final hand summary to be precise, one thing immediately caught my eye. Everything was fine and nicely green except the one pair section, where I'm down 1.64BB per hand.
So basically, if I have AKo on the button, it doesn't matter if I hit the flop. I'll either take down the pot with a c-bet or I'm in trouble - even if I hit with TPTK.

Sounds wrong? Okay, more stats, I decided to filter my most frequent starting hands into three categories and see how well they perform when getting to showdown.

Pocket Pairs
134 Times for 3.37 BB/Hand

Any two suited broadways
56 Times for 4.86 BB/Hand

Any two unsuited broadways
105 Times for -1.2 BB/Hand

Surprised by the massive difference that the flush option makes here? I for sure was.

It makes some sense, though. Think about it, players at this level are often in love with aces. So if your AQ hit on an A75 flop and your c-bet gets called, where do you stand? A six falls on the turn, what now? AA, AK, A7, A6 and A5 have you beat, AQ splits and A8 and A4 both have eleven outs to beat you on the river. If the c-bet gets called, can we really go to war with top pair? I'm already at a point where I love to check it down after the flop, just to keep the pot as small as possible. And even that kind of play is often not possible.

Let's say we're on the button with AKo. UTG limped, UTG+1 limped, CO limped. We won't fold AK here. Instead we raise, and at $10 we raise to $0.7. We get two callers and exactly that same A75 flop from above. Our two callers check the flop, so we c-bet. After all, we have TPTK. But wait, the pot is now at $2.35. If we c-bet the pot, that's a $3 investment for this hand. We might have had a $12 stack at the beginning, our two opponents might just had $4 and $7. What if one or both of them call? They might do that with a lower ace, with a draw or with a hand that has us beat. Either way, by the turn one of our opponents has almost his whole stack in the middle, the other one almost half his stack. If they call on the flop, which they most likely do with weaker aces, they won't let their hands go, so now we're at least $4 deep in the hand. If both call and our $7 opponent decides to push, the other one will certainly call. That would be another $4 for us into a $14 pot with a hand that might still be good. So we can let go and loose a quarter of our stack with a made hand that could easily be ahead, or we can go to war with nothing more than TPTK for more than half our stack. To be honest, I don't like either of these options.

To add a few examples, that cost me money, too much money for my taste, that I honestly didn't know how to play much different.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($5.65)
SB ($6.30)
Frosteater ($17.65)
UTG ($5.75)
MP ($12.40)
CO ($9.40)

Preflop: Frosteater is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $0.4, 4 folds, Frosteater raises to $0.9, UTG calls $0.50.

Flop: ($1.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Frosteater bets $1.4, UTG raises to $4.85, Frosteater calls $3.45.

Turn: ($11.55) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($11.55) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $11.55

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($4.10)
Button ($13.05)
Frosteater ($21.15)
BB ($11.65)

Preflop: Frosteater is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10, Frosteater raises to $0.6, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.50, Button folds.

Flop: ($1.40) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Frosteater bets $1, UTG calls $1.

Turn: ($3.40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Frosteater bets $2.5, UTG calls $2.50 (All-In).

River: ($8.40) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $8.40

On the other hand I've seen a lot of money in my hand histories that I lost because I played weak kickers. But that brings me back to the question if pairs are any good in that situation. Let's say we're on the button and everyone folds to us. Of course we raise here with a wider range in an attempt to steal the blinds. But even when we hit our kicker might be not good enough, so does it even matter, if we hit and as a conclusion what cards we play? Another example:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($5.70)
UTG ($5.30)
MP ($7.25)
CO ($8.05)
Frosteater ($21.20)
SB ($3.75)

Preflop: Frosteater is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Frosteater raises to $0.4, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($0.90) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Frosteater bets $0.9, SB calls $0.90.

Turn: ($2.70) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Frosteater bets $2, SB raises to $2.45, Frosteater calls $0.45.

River: ($7.60) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $7.60

One of these hands I really don't know how to play any other way. Except to slow down on the turn. In which case a pair isn't that good, again. I couldn't take down the pot with a c-bet (that I could have made with any other hand anyway) and am now facing the decision, if I play for the opponent's stack with the hand I have. And more often then not it's not really a good idea.

So, to summarize it, I can't play pairs. Whenever I hit a pair on the flop and my c-bet gets called, I'm utterly lost. And I'd really appreciate some opinions here. How do you play in these situations? Slow down after the flop? Push the shortstacks? Check/call the turn? Check/fold the turn? How far do you go with pairs? What is your thinking behind big turn decisions, say, your opponent pushes $2 all-in into a $2.5 pot on the A75 while you have AQ? Or AK? Or should I look for a few stamps?

aces_full · #2 01-08-2007, 03:11 PM

I didn't bother to read it all,so this might be a stupid question, but did you filter out hands that didn't go to showdown in your PT results. In NL the one pair hands that matter are the ones that went to showdown. In the unfiltered stats it counts how much money you put in with hand where your final holding would be one pair regardless of whether you went to showdown or not. If you filter out hands that were folded, then you should have a positive result with one pair hands, if not, you are most likely not folding one pair type hands often enough at showdown ( or you are calling offf your stack too often).

King Spew · #3 01-08-2007, 03:59 PM

Ding! winner.

OP, sounds like you are just having a bad run of "breakeven" cards.... because it sounds like you have a fairly solid game understanding. That being said, one of the things to look at is (OK, two)

1. Are you missing value with your BIG hands? Are you the stacker more than the stackee?

2. Perhaps a bit of studying up on Bet Sizing would help you. Search here, or NLHET&P.

YIKES, there's a 3: What is your WTSD%? Over 25-28%?

Esmerelda · #4 01-08-2007, 04:08 PM

First hand:

I play it this way usually. I am only folding to that raise against a real nit on these tables. All your other bets are standard. You are going to lose big alot but win big about half the time against Ax and air. Your call is +ev at these tables but high variance.

Hand 2: Same as above. You get so many calling you with queens and a fd appears so you must bet the turn for value. Given his stack size and experience with what villains will stack off with, I know I am going ai if I can from the moment he calls pf unless he is very tight. I can't think of a flop that would change that. You will win plenty of money on these hands but you will lose some big pots here.

Hand 3: Probably check the turn. Given his stack size you are going to be able to get his stack on the river if he likes his hand. Checking encourages him to overvalue his weak kings or bluff. Given the flop he is not likely on a bluff. I play it your way plenty fo times.

Your bet sizing seems solid.

I don't see a problem with your game from these hands, I am sure you have leaks but they are not in these hands. You want to play straightforward aggressive poker with your strong hands at these tables. Over your sample size you can't really draw too many conclusions.

Frosteater · #5 01-08-2007, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but did you filter out hands that didn't go to showdown in your PT results.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, did that. Sorry if it got too long, but this is one of the leaks I have trouble getting to the point with.

[ QUOTE ]
1. Are you missing value with your BIG hands? Are you the stacker more than the stackee?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hit the nail. The thing is, I tend to bet my monsters the same way I bet air, because I don't want my betting to be indicative of my hand. The downside is, they often don't pay off unless the competition has a good, but second-best hand themselves. But I'll take look at betsizing, as you suggested, maybe that'll be helping in more than one spot.

[ QUOTE ]
YIKES, there's a 3: What is your WTSD%? Over 25-28%?

[/ QUOTE ]
Precisely 24.19%.

Antinome · #6 01-08-2007, 06:03 PM

TPGK's value is that it beats TPBK, MP, BP draws, and bluffs. That's a huge range of hands to be beating without making the moneys.

Your opponents must be making some pretty good FTOP decisions playing against you. You must be too predictable. I would mix in more bets with MP and draws for shania.

Check_The_Nuts · #7 01-08-2007, 07:05 PM

your preflop reraise size sucks. If there is one 40 cent raise in front, make it 1.20-1.60. If there is one 40 cent raiser and two cold callers, then make it whatever you did before+40 cents for each cold call.