Theoretical final table tourney question....

[PantsOnFire]

NL Holdem, 3 players left, all are in the money. Assume all players are relatively equally skilled with normal ranges and a good endgame. (In other words, I don't want this post to be about reads).

Blinds 300/600
Stacks after posting blinds:
Player A (120,000) SB
Player B (3,000) button
Hero (7,000) BB

Hero has QQ. Player B moves in for 3,000. Player A calls.

Questions:

1. Do you move in here? (assume your fold equity is very low)

2. Do you call and move in on a non-A/K flop? any flop?

3. Do you fold and hope Player B is eliminated?

And further:

4. For the above questions, what are your hand ranges for saying yes?

5. For the above questions, what payout differences between 1st, 2nd and 3rd would have an impact on your decisions?

6. For the above questions, what range of hero's chipstack would impact your decisions? (e.g. how small before moving in is automatic?)

[Unknown Soldier]

1. definitely
2. no, if i was calling i'd move in on any non AKx flop
3. definitely not, QQ is far too strong
4. if you say they are decent, button is moving in with alot of hands and sb is calling with alot of hands
5. no preference, I'm never not pushing QQ here
6. quite large

[schroedy]

I would smooth call QQ and check it down. Eliminating the short stack is the only realistic +EV strategy at this point.

My range for this call and check would be fairly large, 22+, AT+, KJ+, T9s+.

I am also assuming that if both of us short stacks get eliminated in one hand, Hero still gets second.

No stop and go here, accumulation is no longer an issue, survival and elimination are paramount.

[CARP104]

Wouldn't moving all in overtop of the small stack be the correct play here (someone experienced please correct this if it is not a good play). Most likely the big stack will call but you are at a very good chance to triple up.

It would also somewhat depend on the types of hands these two players have been raising and calling with.

[alphatmw]

so if the payout is 1,000,000/900,000/0 its still a push?

[TC Franks]

I think i would re-raise all-in preflop. I know what's been said about the small stack, but QQ should be ahead of both of these players.
Even if big stack eliminates us both, I would still get second money and this gives me a chance to triple up. Big stack likely was in a call-anything mode and would not have to have much of a hand to get involved here.
Still, he might feel compelled to call at this point, giving you a chance to be very much in the lead in a hand where you could suddenly win a lot of chips.
Also the chances that you're ahead of one of these players is very good. So if the chip leader calls your all-in (he almost has to), even if you lose to the small stack, you could beat the chip leader to stay alive.
If you just call, he might go into check-down mode, small stack hits his ace and now you're the small stack.

[schroedy]

But the point of the hypothetical is that accumulation is virtually irrelevant, given the assumptions.

Calling is the action that maximizes utility given the controlling importance of survival and elimination as values.

If the big stack forces you in, then yes call. Otherwise, save some chips back, in case the small stack happens to win this confrontation and then you will get additional chances to come back.

[SplawnDarts]

[ QUOTE ]
so if the payout is 1,000,000/900,000/0 its still a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absoloutly. Not even close. First, to simplify things, let's just make the top two payouts the same, which is what you were getting at anyways I believe.

Now, before this hand, your expectation was well less than 1/3 of the prize pool given your small stack. It's basically a race to see who A eliminates first. If B goes out first, you get about 1/2 of the pool. If you go out first, you get nothing. So your expectation is only slightly more than 1/4 of the pool. Where exactly your expectation is between 1/3 and 1/4 is pretty irrelivant to the analysis that follows.

Now, let's look at what happens if you play all in. If A wins, you get paid. If you win, you get paid. If B wins but you beat A, you're about where you started, roughly 1/4 equity. If A and B both beat you, you're out. So, assuming all three hands had an equal chance of winning, your expected value here would be somthing like 9/24ths of the prize pool. Which is already better than 1/3, let alone 1/4.

But in reality, the QQ is much stronger than A's range here, which in turn is perhaps a bit stronger than B's range here. So the "good" cases where you get a payoff become more likely, and the only case where you lose very much, where both A and B beat you, becomes far less likely. So the real EV for this play might be more like 5/12ths of the pool(1/2 is the upper bound because that what you would get if B just quit). Given that this play has an expected value right up on the upper bound of what's possible, I can't see any way you could possibly turn it down as the situation really couldn't get much better.

[svelte]

Happy to push here. Thrilled. Gimme those cards.

[indianaV8]

But again, to repeat the original question:
"so if the payout is [literally] 1,000,000$/900,000$/0 is it still a push?"
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