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#21
01-08-2007, 04:49 PM
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Re: AJo, nut flush draw, huge action
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of a flop 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know that you want people to slow down on this hand because of the draw to the nut flush. [/ QUOTE ] That was my original thought behind my flop cold-call: I really didn't want anyone to slow down, even though each additional bet on the flop would be +EV - essentially forgoing an extra 1 SB on the flop for multiple BB later. Probably a mistake. Turn raise was definitely a mistake as others have pointed out - I have a HUGE flush + boat draw, but am ahead here never. Take the cheapest card I can. 
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#22
01-08-2007, 04:51 PM
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Re: AJo, nut flush draw, huge action
[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't 3-bet the turn after the flop action. i probably wouldn't fold on the river but i would if utg+1 wasn't so bad. [/ QUOTE ] UTG+1 being so bad is exactly what "talked" me into the -EV +sanity call.
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#23
01-08-2007, 04:58 PM
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Re: AJo, nut flush draw, huge action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What do you think of a flop 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know that you want people to slow down on this hand because of the draw to the nut flush. [/ QUOTE ] That was my original thought behind my flop cold-call: I really didn't want anyone to slow down, even though each additional bet on the flop would be +EV - essentially forgoing an extra 1 SB on the flop for multiple BB later. Probably a mistake. Turn raise was definitely a mistake as others have pointed out - I have a HUGE flush + boat draw, but am ahead here never. Take the cheapest card I can. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you necessarily have an equity edge on the flop. You probably aren't drawing to all of your flush outs and there could be redraws to a fullhouse even if you hit it. I might give your A outs 0.5 after that kind of aggression on the flop. The fact that you have the nut flush draw makes it less likely that someone is jamming a flush draw on the flop. If we assume at least 2 of your flush outs are gone and a set is out there. You need 9 outs to have an equity edge and you don't have that many.
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#24
01-08-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: AJo, nut flush draw, huge action
No, I'm not suggesting folding or anything.
I was just trying to clear a general point for myself: On the one hand I generally shouldn't let what I think others might hold influence my odds calculations (If the flop shows a Q and I have a Q, then I have two outs to trips - no matter what they might have), but given this particular action, counting the full 9 flush outs seemed overly optimistic as I would have to assume that villains were giving that action with set over set or set vs. 2pair or so. In the hand, Hero always has odds of 10:1 or better. Even discounting some of his flush outs, he definitely has at least 4 outs, especially on the turn.
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#25
01-08-2007, 07:03 PM
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Re: AJo, nut flush draw, huge action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It sure looks like UTG hit his flush on the flop and isn't afraid of letting everyone know. Unfortunately you have too many draws to fold. Not much you could do differently. You can probably fold the river, no way 2 pair is good, but it is such a ginourmous pot and you are closing the action so it's not the worst call ever. Pre-flop is fine, you're going to hear as many people on one side as the other which means either way can't be a big mistake. This hand is where variance comes from; you played it correctly and probably lost 8 BB, at least it wasn't 12... [/ QUOTE ] What do you think of a flop 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know that you want people to slow down on this hand because of the draw to the nut flush. [/ QUOTE ] On the flop it is not a raise to slow anyone down. UTG+1 is a tard and very aggro. He could have tons of things here that you are crushing. 3bet the flop for value, TPTK + NFD is good enough here for a 3bet, IMO.
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