25NL KK Facing Resistance with Great River

[PaulG]

My question here is: should I have stuck around to the river? The river is a great card for me though, although it makes a flush on the board. I tried to induce the bluff on the river by checking and I got it, so I went throught with the action. How many times does the villian have the flush?

No reads on villian, he's new at the table, hence he has no reads on me either (although I'm 17/5/2 over 200)



Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $24.75
UTG+1: $13.55
MP1: $20.85
MP2: $77.90
MP3: $21.75
CO: $27.15
Button: $22.25
SB: $24.55
BB: $23.75

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, 4 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3.25, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $6</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($15.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $5</font>, Hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($25.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $11</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $12.75</font>, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $50.75

[rael]

I don't fold before the river.

I would think that his small turn bet makes a flush draw unlikely. To me that kind of bet after a flop raise means top pair.

I would probably lead the river. Yeah by checking you might induce a bluff, but by betting you don't allow him to take a free showdown with a J or 2 pair. If he made his draw most of your stack is probably going in anyway, so you might as well try to get some value from those times he has a pair or two.

But that's just me.

[sanfranfreako]

Why not re-raise big on the flop?

[dashman]

This feels like set/2 pair due to flop play. I have found very few people at this level to raise then bet down a flush draw, they normally chicken out on the turn and check it. I suppose it could be a combo draw like a sd/fd or top pair fd but how villain played the turn(value bet IMO)I think we are ahead on the river. Im putting villain on set/2 pair and snap calling.

[CaseS87]

checking the river is super bad imo. at this point its very unlikely that he is bluffing, and also its very unlikely if he was that he will try to bluff you for 12 dollars in a 25 pot with he flush getting there. just shove the river and hope you get called by some j, 2 pair or a set.

[Numfar]

Looks fine. The River is read based. If the villain is aggressive I will often check knowing that a push actually represents the flush and if he doesn't have it he may fold. However, a check will often get him to bet. Against a call station I just push.

Without a read I think I usually check - villain seems to like his hand enough to bet again.

[CaseS87]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read I think I usually check - villain seems to like his hand enough to bet again.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is flawed thinking. every hand that he likes enough to bet will call your all in. there are quite a few hands that will check behind that will also call all in. a lot of 25nl players would never value bet 2 pair or a set on the river, but would be forced to call if you lead for your stack.

[Numfar]

The problem is that the flush just hit and our line looks like a draw. The issue is whether someone with 2 pair will call knowing they are probably beat more often that they will lead out thinking that they are ahead.

I don't necessarily disagree with you however I have never seen someone check behind with a set there AFAIK. They won't fold there much either but I think they will more than they will check behind.

Not realy sure how to crunch the numbers on this but I think the ev would be close either way.

[CaseS87]

i think the only time you check this river is if the guy is a maniac and loves to 3 barrel bluff.

[Numfar]

Why a bluff? Aren't we putting him on a strong hand? People 3 barrel strong hands all the time.