1/2: Hero attempts steal from from sb, river play

[MKR]

Villain is 40/4/1.2 over about 30 observed hands. I really do not know anything about him.

All fold to hero in the sb and hero attempts to steal the BB , is called and flops top pair. How do you play the river here? Do you bet out or check? Could Hero be ahead if a reasonable BB is calling? is raising?

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
7 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 9BB

[fretelöo]

I'll be scared of him holding A5 or x4, but I guess it's a call nonetheless. You'll be good one out of eight times, I think...

[Big Folder]

call seems fine. If he's lose enough he'll chase a gutshot with high card ace all the way. Maybe he hit it on the river, but you should call anyways. If he's slowplaying 4s then he's got a big range in blind steals. If he flopped a monster and did this to keep you betting then he played well. I still call down.

[Gap23Razor]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 40/4/1.2 over about 30 observed hands. I really do not know anything about him.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i would think that you ought to have a tentative idea of this holdings, although it is possible he has had a rush of good starting cards to skew his stats so far...

here is my attempt a stat breakdown given what we have so far...i would appreciate some of the more experienced members correcting or added more to the breakdown...

at 40% wouldn't you think the villain is playing all pairs, Axsuited, suited connectors, Kxsuited, and perhaps some offsuit connectors?

and the 4% preflop raise is a little deceptive given 40% V$PIP...if villain had a 20% V$PIP his preflop raise goes up to 8%--which is close to a TAG...thus you might conclude he is raising with the same hands a TAG does, but he is playing more hands...

also, his overall aggression seems a little high given the relatively low % or raises preflop given the hands played...so perhaps the villain is aggressive post flop??

one last question--how is the table playing? lots of limpers and seldom a preflop raise? if so, his preflop % is probably a good adjustment to how the table is playing

thanks for putting up the hand...

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
and the 4% preflop raise is a little deceptive given 40% V$PIP...if villain had a 20% V$PIP his preflop raise goes up to 8%--which is close to a TAG...

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't the PFR% calculated over all hands, not just the ones he plays?

[BigBadBabar]

hand looks fine to me, well played

[MKR]

[ QUOTE ]
one last question--how is the table playing? lots of limpers and seldom a preflop raise? if so, his preflop % is probably a good adjustment to how the table is playing

[/ QUOTE ]

The table vpip is about 30% with pfr between 5 and 10%.

[Arcturus]

I think you played this well. You have top pair and he hasn't shown any agression until the river, so you have to call.

[MKR]

[ QUOTE ]
he hasn't shown any agression until the river, so you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably have to call the raise , but I wonder if it was right to bet the river here? Can be calling or raising with a hand Hero beats more than 50% of the time? Of course, it depends..., but isn't that the question we should be asking ourselves when we bet out on the end?

[Xhad]

Villain is calling with any pair here and possibly Ax. Checking this river is horrible.