OMG avoid Variance or am i too pussy

[bobman0330]

I would fold since SB has 135 BBs. I think calling is pretty bad.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
Daz,

I disagree with both your maths and your assumptions.

132 * 2 * 23.1% - 132 = -71, not -105
88 * 2 * 23.1% - 88 = -47, not -70

You also got the stack sizes of the 2 players messed about. I think under your assumptions, the EV is roughly -$9.

But I think you're crazy if you think SB only 3bets with QQ+/AK. I think he will have TT/JJ/AQ loads, as well as a lot of other random stuff thrown in. This is hugely important, as it shoots our FE way up

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I just stuck it into the Google calculator and didn't realize that it was parsing the equation incorrectly. I would also agree that my assumptions are off. But I also did say originally that I disagree people were folding all but AA/KK. Without that original assumption, I think this calculation is pretty pointless in the first place.

If we add TT/JJ/AQ to SB's range, it may increase our FE. But I think it would be reasonable to also add AK/QQ (and maybe JJ) to the range for calling the push, which now decreases our FE.

I'm too lazy to redo the calculations again, but if someone wants to take a stab at it, I'd be interested in seeing the results.

On a different note, could someone tell me what pushing achieves that a sizable 4-bet doesn't? Are there any hands that you think either player would call for a raise to about 45-50 that he would fold to a push?

[thedustbustr]

lets assume that if you make a 'sizeable 4bet' then you are intending to call a push.

pushing may have more fold equity against TT-QQ than 4betting, + you get to see 5 cards.

if you plan on 4bet/folding, well, yuck.

[BobAllinSki]

[ QUOTE ]
andy,

some TAGs in 6max have as large a 3betting range preflop as 22+/AJ+/56s+ etc etc. I'd say that most TAGs 3bet TT+/AQ/AK very close to 100%.

calling is -EV IMO, b/c we miss teh flop and have to fold 2/3 of teh time, and even when be do hit, if we're ahead, we dont win much extra, and when we're behind we get stacked

[/ QUOTE ]

Not all raises & 3 bets are equal though, this is a UTG raise and a SB 3 bet, about as strong of a 3 bet as you can get, if it was a cut-off & button, or even button & SB then I'd say re-raise, but against this pattern I don't like AKs that much

[BobAllinSki]

[ QUOTE ]
lets assume that if you make a 'sizeable 4bet' then you are intending to call a push.

pushing may have more fold equity against TT-QQ than 4betting, + you get to see 5 cards.

if you plan on 4bet/folding, well, yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

4 bet/folding is better than pushing in my opinion, thats not that 4 bet/folding is good, its just that pushing for 132 after a strong 3 betting pattern to just 13 is rediculous, you are never ahead when called and the 18 odd deadmoney you pick up when folded doesnt make up for the huge -EV you have when up against AA / KK.

A 4 bet accomplishes the same positives as all in, in as much as nearly all the same hands fold but you risk less as you can safely fold when pushed by SB (your commited against UTG, SB to if UTG calls), the point is if they have hands strong enough to push here they would have called your push anyway. if utg folds and sb pushes then you can fold, the whole thing about not raising 30% of your stack if you feel you have to call an all in is only because with a wide range of hole cards you have to call, when an opponent 5 bets his range is tight enough you can safely fold even after putting 30% of your stack in. Another slight benefit of just calling is you will often pick up the pot on the flop without the best hand by pushing. A horribly ugly way to play the hand but better than pushing with a stack 10 * the current bet and a strong 3 bet before you.

All this assumes reasonable opponents, against poor opponents re-raising sucks but so does pushing but a call can have some merit as it only costs 12 and you can end up in some very +EV situations.

so in my opinion

fold > call > re-raise > push

unless your opponents are v. weak, then

call > fold ~= push > re-raise

[jballer]

i fold...oop 3bet from sb signifies a pretty tight range and i doubt shoving AKs here is a very +Ev spot...calling is an option but if utg comes along also you will be playing a reraised pot in pretty bad position.

[Dan Bitel]

to all the people that think either 4betting, then folding or calling is good....wow..i love u guys!

[BobAllinSki]

And to all the people that think pushing for 10 * bet after a utg raise and sb re-raise, love you guys [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PaulieRockets]

IMVHO: SB's bet is way too big. Looks like someone who's not looking for a fight. I'd assume he has a mid-pair. You're still an underdog to him but probably worth pushing if it was just the two of you. Here, UTG, who has announced he has a hand and wants to fight, is behind you with $84. You have no idea how much it'll cost to see the flop. Fold

[ICMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
IMVHO: SB's bet is way too big. Looks like someone who's not looking for a fight.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB rose a $4 to $13.
A 3x re-rasise seems standard.
Anything less is about a min raise.