How High is my overpair?

[stealthmunk]

Stars 109nl 12 left.
I had no timebank so couldn't even pokerdb villain. No real reads.
I want to hear other thoughts before I post my thought.
Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2007/01/05 - 22:07:27 (ET)
Table '39376561 29' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Glad8tor (56603 in chips)
Seat 2: SgtKyle (38139 in chips)
Seat 4: APerfectGent (55166 in chips)
Seat 5: yelwahs (11020 in chips)
Seat 7: zim777 (113961 in chips)
Glad8tor: posts the ante 75
SgtKyle: posts the ante 75
APerfectGent: posts the ante 75
yelwahs: posts the ante 75
zim777: posts the ante 75
Glad8tor: posts small blind 800
SgtKyle: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to APerfectGent [8h 8c]
APerfectGent: raises 3200 to 4800
yelwahs: folds
zim777: calls 4800
Glad8tor: calls 4000
SgtKyle: folds
*** FLOP *** [4h 4d 3s]
Glad8tor: checks
APerfectGent: bets 9300
zim777: folds
Glad8tor: raises 42428 to 51728 and is all-in
APerfectGent:????

[Jiggymike]

I hate having no reads in these situations. Generally its just nice to know how skilled of a player Villian is: will he trap with a high pair against 2 player? Does he call pretty much anything out of his blinds? Does he push semibluff or not (although most pushes here are a semibluff, since he could just have 2 overs to your 8s or something like 65s).

I guess we should look at the pot odds first. There is about 16500 in the pot - at this stage of the tournament you probably could have bet less on flop considering stack sizes . You'd like overcards to go away but its still a value bet unless someone has a 4 for some strange reason. After you bet there is ~26000 in the pot and you have invested 14000, leaving you with 41000, still more than 20BB, so you're not pot committed. It will cost you the rest of the 41000 to win 26000 + 9300 (call) plus 41000 (raise) = 1.85 to 1. Oddds are pretty good and you will have a real nice stack if you win but won't be in bad shape if you fold here. I'm pretty torn without any kind of read but I think I would call unless Villian was a total newb who would just fall overhimself getting all that money in with the 4 or a set of 3s instead of trapping (or a good player repping a semibluff who actually has a 4 with either A4 or maybe 33).

[JustPlayingSmart]

High enough, but just barely.

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
High enough, but just barely.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's probably pushing 55-77 all day here (maybe even 22) but reraising PF with AA-QQ maybe JJ, so yeah, there are 2 combos ahead (TT-99) and 3 behind...just barely. Still I think he makes this play with overs a lot as a scare.

[True North]

[ QUOTE ]
Still I think he makes this play with overs a lot as a scare.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this totally. On a flop like that, a lot of players will put a preflop raiser on two overs and try to move him off them. I think your hand is good here at least half the time.

[Colombo]

Fold. Villain is never pushing a smaller pair unless hes horrible. Overcards like AQ could be possible. I'd say the large majority of the time though he has TT/JJ that was played passively preflop.