AA he shoves flop, you know his hand. CALL?

[johnnyrocket]

omg hit it on the nose, you want to maximize equity and if you fold you are losing it. I do understand the fact that you may be a good player and not want the race, it also leaves you at a chip disadvantage if you fold.

[captainwan]

That's a subject covered in the book "The Mathematics of Poker" published last month.

[solinar]

I think it depends a lot on how you value his play compared to yours. If you consider yourself a much better player, why not pick a better spot? If your roughly equal, then this spot is as good as any, flip the coin and move on to another opponent.

If you are always willing to take a 4% margin of victory, obviously you will win in the long run, but your variance is going to be huge. You better be bankrolled multiple times for your level to constantly go AI on a 4% margin of victory.

Just my opinion, feel free to disagree [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it depends a lot on how you value his play compared to yours. If you consider yourself a much better player, why not pick a better spot? If your roughly equal, then this spot is as good as any, flip the coin and move on to another opponent.

If you are always willing to take a 4% margin of victory, obviously you will win in the long run, but your variance is going to be huge. You better be bankrolled multiple times for your level to constantly go AI on a 4% margin of victory.

Just my opinion, feel free to disagree [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Your advantage over your opponent is an average of all the +EV situations you get into in the long run. This situation is like not making thin value bets on the in limit hold em because your opponent will put himself in more -EV situations in other hands. If you get into a +EV situation, you should always take it. If you don't, you simply won't win as much money.

[solinar]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get into a +EV situation, you should always take it. If you don't, you simply won't win as much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you won't win as much money, and let me illustrate it with an extreme example.

You are playing HU SNGs against a player who states "I will go all in every hand" and then proceeds to do so. On the first hand you get dealt Q5o. You are a 50.12% favorite vs a random hand. Do you call since it is +EV, or do you fold, lose your blind, and wait for the next hand which could be AA? Obviously its going to make you more $/hour if you wait for a good hand to call his AI with than if you call it with any hand that is +EV.

Look at it from a $/hour scenario. If you are playing 50$ HU SNGs and you call the 52/48 AI, your pot equity is 52% of $100 or $52. You paid $52.50 to enter the SNG. Your not even beating the rake.

If your margin of expertise between you and your opponent is large it may be better $/hour to wait for better hands to make your move. If you are a 75/25 favorite to win a match because of how much you outclass your opponent, you're losing money by giving him a 48% chance at winning the match here.

Variance:

If you are a 90% favorite to win an all in hand, and you do that 5X in a row, then there is a (0.5^10) = 0.00001% chance of having a 5 buyin downswing.

If you are a 52% favorite to win an all in hand, and you do that 5X in a row, then there is a (0.48^5) = 2.5% chance of having a 5 buyin downswing.

So you are 2500 times more likely to have a 5 buyin downswing if you make +52% plays than if you make +90% plays.

[pocketjacks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get into a +EV situation, you should always take it. If you don't, you simply won't win as much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you won't win as much money, and let me illustrate it with an extreme example.

You are playing HU SNGs against a player who states "I will go all in every hand" and then proceeds to do so. On the first hand you get dealt Q5o. You are a 50.12% favorite vs a random hand. Do you call since it is +EV, or do you fold, lose your blind, and wait for the next hand which could be AA? Obviously its going to make you more $/hour if you wait for a good hand to call his AI with than if you call it with any hand that is +EV.

Look at it from a $/hour scenario. If you are playing 50$ HU SNGs and you call the 52/48 AI, your pot equity is 52% of $100 or $52. You paid $52.50 to enter the SNG. Your not even beating the rake.

If your margin of expertise between you and your opponent is large it may be better $/hour to wait for better hands to make your move. If you are a 75/25 favorite to win a match because of how much you outclass your opponent, you're losing money by giving him a 48% chance at winning the match here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said,,,,I am 62% at the $50 level, and the reason I brought the question up was because I had a situation where I was 99% sure We were racing with me ahead 52% - 48%...Stacks were equivalent and all the pot had in it was my 3XBB raise.

If I was a 55% player at that level I probably call. I folded and won the match 12 minutes later. However, after the match I wondered if I am losing too much value by folding when I know I am slightly ahead.

If it were a $1000 sit n go HU against BBJ obviously I am calling and loving the fact that I am getting my chips in ahead, but I felt it was a different situation.

[jay_shark]

Solinar , there is money in the pot already so even if you'll win only 52% of the time which doesn't even beat the rake , you still have to make the call .

With money in the pot and being a 52% favourite , it may be equivalent to being a 60 % winner with no money in the pot . That should make sense if you think about it .

Also , your variance calculation is a bit off . If you expect to win 90 % of the time , then the chance of going on a 5 buy in downswing is (.1/0.9)^5

if you are a 52% favourite , then there is a really good chance that you'll go on a 5 buy in downswing . The probability of this occuring is (0.48/0.52)^5=67% .This means that you may go on a 5 buy in downswing in a number of ways and not just by losing 5 in a row . You may win 3 games in a row followed by 8 consecutive losses which results in a 5 buy in downswing . The possibilities are endless .

[kolotoure]

Calling with Q5 is -ev in that spot regardless of your edge

[lwrunner103]

OMG this is the best hidden brag post ever.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get into a +EV situation, you should always take it. If you don't, you simply won't win as much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you won't win as much money, and let me illustrate it with an extreme example.

You are playing HU SNGs against a player who states "I will go all in every hand" and then proceeds to do so. On the first hand you get dealt Q5o. You are a 50.12% favorite vs a random hand. Do you call since it is +EV, or do you fold, lose your blind, and wait for the next hand which could be AA? Obviously its going to make you more $/hour if you wait for a good hand to call his AI with than if you call it with any hand that is +EV.

Look at it from a $/hour scenario. If you are playing 50$ HU SNGs and you call the 52/48 AI, your pot equity is 52% of $100 or $52. You paid $52.50 to enter the SNG. Your not even beating the rake.

If your margin of expertise between you and your opponent is large it may be better $/hour to wait for better hands to make your move. If you are a 75/25 favorite to win a match because of how much you outclass your opponent, you're losing money by giving him a 48% chance at winning the match here.

Variance:

If you are a 90% favorite to win an all in hand, and you do that 5X in a row, then there is a (0.5^10) = 0.00001% chance of having a 5 buyin downswing.

If you are a 52% favorite to win an all in hand, and you do that 5X in a row, then there is a (0.48^5) = 2.5% chance of having a 5 buyin downswing.

So you are 2500 times more likely to have a 5 buyin downswing if you make +52% plays than if you make +90% plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your example is bad because you are pretty much assured of getting into a better situation. In reality, you are never enough of a favorate to pass up a sure +EV opportunity. I also doubt you are often a 75% favorate overany oponent.