Taking the coinflip

[NTProdigy]

If you are fairly sure that you are better than half the players and worse than half the players, is it appropriate and even profitable to take any coinflip situation?

For instance, if you hold 22o, would it be okay to race with an opponent if you knew they didn't have a pocket pair?

[trontron]

by definition, taking the coinflip has an expected value of 0. so it doesn't matter if you take it or not (in a cashgame... it's not the same in a tourney!). if you do, your variance is higher. that's all.

but taking the coinflip is not the same as "you are better than half the players and worse than half the players"!

[NTProdigy]

If you felt that you were a greater player than most of the field, then wouldn't you shy away from taking a coinflip in favor of situations where you can get your money as a bigger favorite?

I'm asking in perspective of tournament play, not cash game.

[trontron]

[ QUOTE ]
If you felt that you were a greater player than most of the field, then wouldn't you shy away from taking a coinflip in favor of situations where you can get your money as a bigger favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]
you're absolutely right. you should avoid early coinflips in a tournament (unless your opponents are better as you)

[Kidichiban]

I don't agree 100%

Early in a tournament, when you have 0 reads, you will hardly know when a coinflip situation may occur. In general, you will play tighter and attempt to not get into a situation that you may be dominated in.

In a situation, lets say, in the middle of a tournament (or cash game) where you have a hand like [7,7] in Early Pos. and A player that you know is willing to push all-in with [Q,J] from anywhere. How is not putting your chips at risk here more profitable then playing the coinflip.

[PantsOnFire]

Here are my factors for coinflips in tourneys:

Strength of other players - Obviously, the weaker I am in relation to the field, the more inclined I am to go with coin flips. Having said that, even if I was in a field with the top pros, I probably wouldn't take the first or second coin flip I was presented with. I give myself more credit than that. I think it would be more prudent (for me) to play tight as a drum and wait for good opportunities like flopped sets, etc. If my table image deteriorated to the point where nobody is playing with my raises, then I might start considering the coinflip. However, if I win one coinflip and my stack is above average, I would not necessarily be looking for the next coinflip, I would be patient.

Desparation Level - I am more inclined to take coinflips as my stack gets shorter in relation to the blinds. I would start looking for situations where I could push all my chips in, have some fold equity to perhaps avoid the coinflip, but accept a call that puts me in the coinflip situation. But this is also related to the capability of my opponents. Playing against pros, my desparation level would arrive sooner. But playing against poor players, I may hold off on the coinflip a lot longer than most people might suspect. In other words, I might give up a few blinds to wait for a dominating situation where I know the bad player is going to call.

Pot Odds - Most people don't go for coinflips early in a tourney for the reason of pot odds. With tiny blinds in level 1, two guys all-in against each other are getting 1:1 pot odds. Even all but the very worst players should avoid this. Now as the tourney goes on and the blinds go up, some coinflip situation occur where you will get very good odds. So in these situations, I look to have a good stack (i.e. I have people covered), and small stack has gone all-in, I am last to act and the pot odds are really good, like 2:1 or better. This is a calling situation I look to increase my chipstack in these situations. Of course several other factors come into play, especially the possibility that it is not actually a coinflip.

Out of those three factors I use, I would say that desparation level is by for the most important. Second, I will start calling coinflips later on with a big stack and good pot odds.

And to be honest with you, I have yet to enter a tourney where I am willing to take coinflip chances early because I feel I am that much weaker than my opponents. Even if I enter this years WSOP, I will not take early coinflips for a large percentage of my stack.

On top of all this, it is a critical error if you think you are in a coinflip, you take it, and you end up being dominated. That's why I'd much rather enter a coinflip with AK than 22. That's fodder for another post but it is something to keep in mind.


Edit:

There is also another large category of coinflip situations that is often overlooked. It is not the classic AK vs 22 coinflip but another sort.

For example, you have the nut flush draw on the flop and are getting 2:1 odds to call an all in where you know the guy has an overpair. So in this situation, you are getting the exact pot odds you need to call (i.e. in the long run you will come out even). However, this is the same as the coinflip situation in that your edge is little or none so it is usually not worth risking your tournament life or a large chunk of your stack by calling here.


Edit2:

I am also much more likely to take coinflips in certain tourneys, especially rebuys and freerolls, etc. Another factor is the payout. For example if there 500 people and the only prize is 1st for a seat into another tournament, then I would consider the desparation level to be high right from the get go. Anyways, if it is not a normal 10% field payout cash tourney, then there may be a case for trying to build a big stack early through coinflips or whatever else you can do.

Do you want to spend hours in a freeroll and finish just out of whatever is being awarded?

And for rebuys, the coinflip situation will have a lot to do with how the others are playing.

Peace, out...