(315 Turbo) Left in bad spot after raising K10s and being reraised

MEJG2 · #1 01-04-2007, 03:06 AM

Ok here is one of the mistakes I make now and then. Normally it happens when I start to feel the pressure from the blinds and decide to raise and do so with an amount that leaves me in a bad spot if I get reraised. Here is an example of a hand I just played really poorly. I was watching the blinds and it was the last hand of 50/100 and the BB has been pretty tight.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1865)
UTG+1 (t1230)
MP1 (t1675)
MP2 (t2210)
CO (t1675)
Hero (t1170)
SB (t2170)
BB (t1505)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to t300, SB folds, BB raises to t1505 (All-in)

When Hero folds he will be left with t870, next hand is 75/150. So he will have an M = 3.9 and will have little to no fold equity.

I can think of at least 3 or 4 times I have done this in the last 2 months. Anyone have a structured way or rule of thumb they use to make sure they think this through and don't leave themselves in this situation?

Normally I pay better attention, but I am not sure why this reoccurs now and then.

ryanghall · #2 01-04-2007, 03:49 AM

I'd prefer pushing preflop to making it 300.

Making it 250 may be preferable to both cause then you can get away if he pushes.

Ryan

schwah · #3 01-04-2007, 03:59 AM

as played you have to fold readless

push or fold pf (or limp if you're raptor). i guess making it 250 isnt horrible if thats your normal raise but its still a kinda [censored] stack to raise/fold with

Shillx · #4 01-04-2007, 04:03 AM

Raising to 3x the BB is such a sucker play if everyone plays perfectly. You are throwing away .2%-.3% per hand (compared to shoving) here as long as you don't mix strategies and everyone knows exactly what you are raising with. Go AI pre-flop and you probably have to call the shove as well. I haven't looked at it very closely but you probably have to call with about 70% of his shoving range. This is just an estimate though.

MEJG2 · #5 01-04-2007, 10:18 AM

If I was thinking clearly... (That's a big "if" at 2am) I would have pushed or folded. I guess the chase for perfection is what keeps us playing this damn game.

Any one calling as played, knowing you're on life support with 8 still playing if you fold here.

mightyrick · #6 01-04-2007, 10:49 AM

I fold pre-flop. I don't play KT from this position. Its a crap hand waiting to get destroyed. I understand that everyone has folded to the button, but you just cannot defend the hand if you survive to the flop. You could easily end up all in against AK, KJ, KQ or a pocket pair.

Fold and pick a better opening hand. You've got time.

MEJG2 · #7 01-04-2007, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Any one calling as played, knowing you're on life support with 8 still playing if you fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

ryanghall · #8 01-04-2007, 04:37 PM

mightyrick, you do know pushing is +EV right?

Ryan

Michael C. · #9 01-04-2007, 04:41 PM

Yep, push or fold. I think it's funny how some people are so attached to the "10x rule" that they start doing weird things when they get to 11x or 12x. While having more big blinds does let you be more patient and possibly fold to a raise, there are still a lot of hands in which pushing or folding is the right decision. Especially on Stars when a lot of people at these levels love re-stealing with hands like A4o.

Mike MacIntosh · #10 01-04-2007, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't looked at it very closely but you probably have to call with about 70% of his shoving range. This is just an estimate though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is going to cost you 870 to see a pot of 1520 (1.74 to 1 odds). I am an SNGPT nut, and have become overly reliant on it...I have actually not done ICM by hand yet...

ICM

If you fold, $EV = 0.07

IF you call and win, $EV =.1584

If you call and lose, $EV =0

I am trying to get this ICM math down. How do we figure out the equity % in order for this call to break even (without having hand ranges)? Can someone help me?

PS - I have searched, but all I can find is the equation that requires hand range equites...