stars 100grand drawing hand OOP

[willie]

early in the 100grand

joscha is new to the table and hasn't been too active in his first 15 hands

supernick had been splashing around and doing a rollercoaster due to erratic play


PokerStars Game #7736979349: Tournament #38703341, $150+$12 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/01/02 - 21:44:40 (ET)
Table '38703341 98' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Balla-B13 (3295 in chips)
Seat 2: joscha45 (1755 in chips)
Seat 3: thequoter (3865 in chips)
Seat 4: Coconut Soda (3830 in chips)
Seat 5: jendenali (1335 in chips)
Seat 6: rydewithme (3355 in chips)
Seat 7: supernick24 (1865 in chips)
Seat 8: royeapoker (5565 in chips)
Seat 9: maulyurchips (1160 in chips)
rydewithme: posts small blind 25
supernick24: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to rydewithme [9d Td]
royeapoker: folds
maulyurchips: folds
Balla-B13: folds
joscha45: calls 50
thequoter: folds
Coconut Soda: folds
jendenali: folds
rydewithme: calls 25
supernick24: checks
*** FLOP *** [7s 6d 7d]
rydewithme: bets 100
supernick24: calls 100
joscha45: calls 100
*** TURN *** [7s 6d 7d] [Tc]
rydewithme: checks
supernick24: bets 350
joscha45: calls 350
rydewithme: calls 350
*** RIVER *** [7s 6d 7d Tc] [4d]
rydewithme: checks
supernick24: bets 1365 and is all-in
joscha45: calls 1255 and is all-in


flop lead ok?
turn c/c
river ???

annoying me currently.

[Cky3]

seems to me you're behind 66 with limps. Fold turn? If you think you're draws are live then check shove turn?

[OneByPhi]

Let's see what you know about where you are in the tournament and about the other players. It's still early enough that everyone involved in the hand has a full range of options: Joscha's M is 23.4, Supernick's is 24.9, and yours is a 44.7, so no one is in a position where they have to make any desperate moves.

Supernick likes to be involved and could have anything, limping in from the BB, but presumably, he doesn't have a big hand. Although you can't really be all that sure, you suspect that Joscha is fairly tight; he limped in middle position after three folds, so most likely he has some modest hand that he feels is worth limping in with, but isn't worth a raise (and probably not worth calling a pre-flop raise with). Good candidates might be A with a so-so kicker (especially if suited), a low-to-middle pair, or possibly some non-premium connectors (suited or unsuited). Going to the flop, it's hard to know very much about what these guys have.

The flop comes 7s, 6d, 7d, giving you 8 outs to a flush, 3 outs to a straight, and one out to the stone nuts. First to act, you bet 100 (2/3 of the pot) as a semi-bluff. This seems okay to me. But what does it tell you when they both call? Since Supernick's table image is loose and wild, his call may or may not mean much. You don't tell us what table image you have established, and if you have routinely been betting out at middle-sized-but-coordinated flops like this to try to pick up pots when others have missed the flop, he might be calling just because he's loose, the price is cheap relative to his stack, and thinks you're trying to steal. Even if you've been a tight-ass who would only bet out at a flop like that if you had a good piece of it, Supernick might be the kind of guy who would hang around for 100 anyway. But what about Joscha? You say he hasn't been at the table long, so he may not have a great idea of your table image either, but if he's tight, as you suspect, would he call if he completely missed the flop? Admittedly, the pot at this point is 350, and it costs him just 100 to call (3.5:1), but a lot of tighties will just fold and save their chips for another spot if they miss the flop. I'd start worrying that his call means that he has a good draw, either to a double-ended straight, or a flush. The size of the pot makes the call correct for either of those hands for even the tightest player. Also, thinking back to the range of hands we put him on pre-flop, notice that a suited Ax in diamonds would give him a nut flush draw, a non-diamond suited 98 would give him a double-ended straight draw, and the less likely for a tight player suited 54 would give him a double-ended straight draw if it was in any non-diamond suit, and a double-ended straight flush draw if it was in diamonds. Admittedly, an aggressive player might try a semi-bluff raise with one of those holdings, and Joscha doesn't, but he seems tight, and he may decide that since he has position that he can just bide his time and see what cards come off. Lastly, consider the case where Jocha has a low-to-middle pocket pair. If he has a pair smaller than 6s, it has just gone down drastically in value; if Joshca is the tight player we think he is, he probably would fold. Guys like that tend to play small pocket pairs early in the tourney on a "flop a set or fold" basis, especially when someone has already bet and another player has called. If he has 8s he has an overpair to the board, but if he's weak-tight he may fear you have a 7. He'd probably call and be worried. If he has 6s or 7s, he's hit a huge flop and he's laughing and thinking that he has a virtually unbeatable hand and there are two players in front of him throwing money into the pot. He'll plan to slow play and hope straight or flush cards come so that he can really cash in. In this case you only have one out, the 8d.

When the turn brings the 10c, you make top pair and bet 350. Let's look at the size of the pot and the size of the bet, what your bet tells the other players, and what you hope to accomplish. After your bet, the pot has grown to 800 and it will cost Supernick 350 to call (a little more than 2.25:1). Admittedly, if you have a better hand than him (and I think odds are good that you do), you are denying him proper odds to draw at a flush or straight. The problem is, if you have perceived Supernick properly and he really is loose and wild, he may call anyway with either of those draws figuring that he'll bust you if he makes it, or he even may be figuring that you don't have that much of a hand, Joscha is tight, and that he may be able to steal the pot on the end with a big bluff.
When the action gets to Joscha, Supernick's call has swelled the pot to 1150, so he's getting a little better than 3.25:1. If he has a big draw, especially the nut flush draw, he probably assumes his implied odds are plenty good enough to justify drawing. If he has the boat or quads, he's still just waiting to spring his trap. Notice that both players can assume that you don't have 98 (and have just made a straight), and that Joscha can make this same assumption about Supernick, because a player who just hit his straight would need to make a bigger bet to price out the flush draw. In terms of what you were trying to accomplish, your bet size kept a loose, wild player (admittedly with improper odds unless he has a much better hand than we assume) and a tight player (with good enough implied odds to make the decision rational) hanging around. Admittedly, you had to worry that one of the other players may have had 98 and made a straight that would have beaten you unless you made your diamond draw on the river, but either a check or a bigger bet would have seemed better to me. The check may have encouraged Supernick to make his bluff immediately, or it may have given a free card if they both checked behind you and a non-diamond overcard to your 10 came off, giving someone a better two pair. But it would have also kept you from building a big pot when you aren't very sure where you stand. The bigger bet (say 500-600) carries a big risk if one of the players behind you just made the straight or has a set, a boat, or quad 7s, but it also might have given you the chance to take the pot down right there. Given the point in the tourney and your stack size (3205 before your turn bet), I would lean toward checking.

When the river brought a diamond, I think your check is okay. Either of the other players could have a better flush. I don't know what to make of Supernick's bet. Loose, wild players do things like that. He might have a good flush, or he might have bupkes and figure that your check showed weakness and that a tight player like Joscha will lay down anything but the nut flush, a boat, or quad 7s to an all-in, and figure that Joscha probably doesn't have it. Notice that Supernick's stack was down to 1365 before this bet, so he might have been inclined to make this move no matter what came on the river to try to steal. When Joshca calls, I would fold without hesitation. He almost surely has a better flush than you or the boat or even quad 7s. You still have 2855 chips. Keep them and wait for a better spot.

[supernick24]

lol im not usually a wild player, but this hand was just one mistake after another. after willie posts his results, ill tell him what i was thinking

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
lol im not usually a wild player, but this hand was just one mistake after another. after willie posts his results, ill tell him what i was thinking

[/ QUOTE ]

for sure. i spewed so bad calling the end...

for the long winded reply guy- note that i check/called the turn beginning to feel lost as to how many outs i had.

supernick has 72o, and mp limper flopped 6s full w/ 66- hence his repetitive smooth calling.

[DDBeast]

Good god he just that reply was an entire book.

Anyway, I lead the flop always here. I play the turn the same, but I think you're boned on the river, fold.

[OneByPhi]

Okay, I'm new here. I didn't realize it was a faux pas to post a detailed hand analysis. I have looked around enough to realize most replies are very short; now I know why. Personally, I find detailed hand analysis useful. I feel like I gain a lot of insight by seeing how other players break down a hand.

Two last long-winded comments: 1) I left out the case where Joscha's connectors are 76, but it's the flopped boat case. 2) You can be sure Joscha didn't make a straight on the turn either, or he would have jammed the pot right there.

I'll refrain from long posts in the future if others find them annoying. Peace.

[illuminati]

supernick played goot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[OneByPhi]

To Willie: Sorry, I didn't pay enough attention, and I was thinking you had bet out the turn when I wrote that. I understand why you called the turn bet and I agree with it.

To Supernick: I based my assumption that you were loose and wild on Willie's comments. I have never played with either of you and have no clue how you play other than this post. Why didn't you raise on the flop if you had a set of 7s? Admittedly, since Joscha had a boat it would have led to trouble anyway, but that board had straight and flush possibilites, so slow-playing the set looks dangerous.