$200 Sit N Go Question #3

[willie24]

!? man some of the logic in these responses is awful.

the ICM crowd has the answer right, but you don't have to be a math whiz to figure it out.

If you win, you have 4000 and still are an underdog to take first. If you win, the chance that one of your opponents is eliminated on this hand is exactly the same as when you fold.

if you fold you are, what, probably over 85% to lock up 3rd? and don't underestimate your chance to advance further with 675. it's not as low as you might think.

Calling is a terrible play in this situation. probably worse than calling allin on the first play of the tourney with 72.

This is all assuming that the shortest stack takes last if 2 or more players are eliminated on the same hand. if you split the prizes among the "ties" (as i know AP used to do, for one) then this is an easy call.

note: caprice, i did not mean to post this in response to your post. it's in response to the OP.

[willie24]

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If you fold you have 675 chips remaining. You'll be in for the small blind and probably muck that hand too to be consistant. That'll leave you with 475 chips after you ante-up OTB. You'll be virtually forced to play anything in your big blind. The majority of your hopes pin on sneaking into third by one of the other players going broke on this Kings hand. I'd say about 75% of the time one of them will go broke and you'll get into third. But you'll have a very neglidgable chance at winning the tournament. So you'd get a little greater than 1.5 points by folding this hand.


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no, after you fold you will have an automatic +ChipEV in the SB. 1 of 2 things will happen, you will either be allin against a random big blind to double up, which is exactly a 0 EV situation, or you will be allin against a slightly better than average button to double-and-a-half up, which is a positive EV situation. (or i suppose, rarely, you will be up against 2 better than average opponents to triple up, which is -EV but not terribly.)

also, if the big blind is very dense and the stars align right you might gain 300 chips without showing down. while unlikely, and very wrong, i do see BBs make this play a lot - and it is possible- probably more likely than being allin 3 way.

so anyway, your chip expectation the hand AFTER your SB is actually higher than 675 if you don't do anything stupid.

Edit: oh i forgot about the ante, which just makes all possible scenarios in the SB more +EV for you.

[Copernicus]

"If you win, the chance that one of your opponents is eliminated on this hand is exactly the same as when you fold."

Huh?

[Dot_the_Bot]

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"If you win, the chance that one of your opponents is eliminated on this hand is exactly the same as when you fold."

Huh?

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Because you are the small stack, your involvement in the hand does not increase the likliehood of another player getting knocked out this hand at all.

[Pudge714]

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I don't understand why these SNG questions get so many responses. Assign hand ranges to the three opponents, and run some ICM numbers. Thread over.

KK is a trivial fold here, and AA is probably a close decision.

And FWIW, the 2000-chip stack should have the best hand here more often than the other two.

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If the players are good, thinking players, I'd probably say something like the following is reasonable:

1500: AK, 88+. Needs a good hand, but can't play super duper tight, because he knows you're likely to play this hand no matter what, and he's in the blind next hand. He's only pushing the lower end of this range thinking he'll be up against you a lot of the time with two random cards.

2000: QQ+, possibly JJ. Knows the 1500-stack has a hand, yet pushed anyway. It's clear he could likely fold into the money at this point since the 1500 stack is playing, and either UTG or you will be really short (or busted) after this hand.

9000: He could be playing pretty wide here, since even if he loses, the bubble may continue, and could still be exploitable for him. He has something, but it isn't necessarily as premium as the other two. Suited connectors and aces are in some players' ranges here, as well as all the premium hands obviously.

You clearly don't want to play this pot with KK. Heck, if the 2000-stack is tight enough, his range alone might be ahead of you.

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This is a fold but these ranges are awful.

[UMTerp]

My UTG range is probably a little too tight, but I don't think the other two are far off.

[adios]

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Why?

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Because the premise of your hypothetical shifts the imperative from the cards themselves to the financial implications of tournament placement. If one would fold the second best starting hand while short-stacked at a 4 handed table in order to move into the money, that same logic continues over to the best starting hand, since the impetus is now on the certainty of some reward rather than the likelihood of greater success.

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Your "logic" is flawed at best and non sensical at worst IMO. If you were 99% certain you'd win, you'd make the call for sure. Obviously Aces will win more often than Kings and thus you can't say that you should fold Aces if you would fold Kings.

[adios]

I probably make the call. IMO Kings have too much equity to fold here. I'd be worried about someone having Aces since the T1500 and especially T2000 players know they're putting their payoffs at risk. If I win I probably have a great chance at 2nd and have increased my chances to win alot given the "normal" payouts for 3rd. If I beat T1500 I still haven't wrapped up 3rd but chances have gone up a great deal.

[AMT]

i love the STTF hijacking to save this thread. yeah listen to em, fold.


for everyone who says "the goal of an SNG is to make the money", read one of the OPs books....

[fatheaddy]

Ev + or not, you are under pressure with your short stack. Of course it is unfavorably having 3 opponents in the pot, but otherwise you could hit big. Ask yourself about your chances to have an bether opportunity in the following hands before you are forced to move in with trash or being outblinded. I would simply CALL/MOVE IN following these thoughts.