River Trips, Villain makes Overbet

mscags · #1 01-02-2007, 08:40 PM

Villain has TAG like stats over a very small sample

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $118.75
CO: $215.85
Button: $197
Hero: $207.55
BB: $465.90

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $4, CO folds, Button raises to $15, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($47, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($47, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $39, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($125, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $143, Hero.....

MasterLJ · #2 01-02-2007, 08:42 PM

Youch. If I hit a set on that flop I'd check it too.

I'd think I'd have to call, but what are we really beating here?

Jay Riall · #3 01-02-2007, 09:03 PM

I hate preflop. I'd muck or 4bet depending on table conditions. Postflop is good. I don't think I can fold without a better read because we only need to be good around 33% of the time here. Pretty sick spot tbh.

Wu36 · #4 01-02-2007, 09:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I hate preflop. I'd muck or 4bet depending on table conditions. Postflop is good. I don't think I can fold without a better read because we only need to be good around 33% of the time here. Pretty sick spot tbh.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah. but i only 4bet if button has been reraising or isolating a lot.

Jay Riall · #5 01-02-2007, 09:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate preflop. I'd muck or 4bet depending on table conditions. Postflop is good. I don't think I can fold without a better read because we only need to be good around 33% of the time here. Pretty sick spot tbh.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah. but i only 4bet if button has been reraising or isolating a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same. Folding here a lot of the time.

PantsOnFire · #6 01-02-2007, 09:27 PM

What do you beat? AK ties, AJ, KK, JJ seem unlikely. I say this guy holds QQ. It's the only hand the makes sense for a TAG taking this line. He might have AK but his all-in to me seems like a guy with a full house hoping a guy with AK will call.