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#31
01-02-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BTW, if you're going to push this river, you should have bet the turn IMO. [/ QUOTE ] yup [/ QUOTE ] More on this please. I think our line disguises our hand in a much more effective way. AQ calls a big bet after having a c/r called on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] You check the turn (to disguise your hand) for 2 reasons: 1 to induce a bluff (or bet from tighty who would fold top pair on the turn) on the river. 2 to save money if you're already beat. In neither of these situations do you want to raise the river. If this is AQ, it's really bad so I don't see them folding. [/ QUOTE ] I understand why we check behind. In this spot it was very specifically to induce a bluff, because I could not figure out the turn check, other than a TP or worse kind of hand that was trying to push me off a perceived Button Steal / CBet. If it was a whiffed check/raise, it was a stupid one, as he check/raised the flop. Check/raise flop and lead turn is almost always a monster. Check/raise flop and check turn is not. I'd like him to commit himself with a marginal hand here, and I think he folds to a turn bet. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think the players that fold to the turn bet are calling the river raise. I think calling stations would call both, and perceptive players will fold both. Also, the kind of player who tries to blow you off your hand on the flop with this huge bet, often does it with a semibluff. There are only 3 drawing hands (other than middle or bottom pair) on this flop: JT, T9, J9. All are candidates to call preflop, and all have you beat. 
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#32
01-02-2007, 06:40 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
on this board if i don't fold the flop i think your line is perfect. it looks a little fishy, which is just a bonus that induces calls from almost any Q and even JJ/TT/etc.
i can't really say how often i fold the flop but i would be thinking about his c/r flop stats and the size of his c/r. i know you say he's new but that just means you need to datamine more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#33
01-02-2007, 06:43 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same and push the river. He'll look you up with most decent Q's. I'd never 3-bet this board with aces, you won't get called by worse hands (even AQ has to figure he's beat). [/ QUOTE ]
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#34
01-02-2007, 07:31 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
At first my conclusion was that smooth-calling on the river was optimal, but with more thought I have reconsidered. Given the way you played it, I like a river push.
Villain's check-raise on the flop says "I can beat ace-high." This is a pretty standard playing-back-at-the-PFR'er line, and it doesn't necessarily indicate any power. Of course, it could also be a mega-hand. Given how dry the flop is, and given that you reraised preflop, the only logical hands for villain after the check-raise are 33, 88, maybe QQ (highly unlikely because no preflop reraise), AQ, and maybe KQ. On the turn, villain checks -- that is either scared or an attempted check-raise. Since I don't think a check-raise makes any sense (he's got the aggro in the hand right now), I think villain is usually on the weaker side after the turn check. KQ just got much more likely in my mind. The river bet is a value-bet, but the big question is, what hands call if ep pushes? Obviously every bluff folds; in these cases, ep is just as well off calling as pushing. Obviously every full house calls; in these cases, ep is $90 richer by calling than pushing. The question is, what does villain do with AQ and KQ if ep pushes? I'd say he usually calls with AQ, and he probably flips a coin with KQ. So! This all boils down to relative probabilities of full houses (33, 88, and the unlikely QQ/99) versus queens (AQ/KQ). On pure probabilities, AQ/KQ are 18 combos and 33/88/99/QQ are 10 combos. Also, I think we have to discount QQ because of the lack of a preflop reraise and I think we might want to discount KQ because of the preflop call. The turn action makes 33/88/99/QQ even less likely. Since your line is passive enough to get called down by the strong Qs, and since your opponent's line is unlikely to be a full house, I think the push is probably +EV. It's not a hugely +EV move, but I think it's +EV.
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#35
01-02-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Sufjan Stevens [/ QUOTE ] Excellent. Google or no google? [/ QUOTE ] No google. Sufjan is excellent. "I made a lot of mistakes - I made a lot of mistakes" and so on. Illinoise is one fine piece of music.
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#36
01-02-2007, 08:45 PM
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Re: Adlai, Adlai, What Did He Say? And What is the Answer? FT 200
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BTW, if you're going to push this river, you should have bet the turn IMO. [/ QUOTE ] yup [/ QUOTE ] More on this please. I think our line disguises our hand in a much more effective way. AQ calls a big bet after having a c/r called on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] . The problem is that his river bet shows more strength than the turn check. And our river push shows more strength than turn bet. Aren't you betting this turn when floating or on a draw?
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