$200 Sit N Go Question #3

[Dot_the_Bot]

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For instance, if the big stack is unbelievably tight, then he will almost certainly be a loser in a heads-up match. Then you win.

It's important not to play distracted poker and figure out your opponents tendancies. This goes double for the end of a sit 'n go. It's the difference between knowing how well you well do and like sorta knowing how well you will do in the long run.

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If you have an M of 8, and he has an M of 18, HU- Im sure you can just sub in the probability you would win if you both bet all-in at 50/50 to win, and still gain the lesson of the equation itself.

Which is why I say that skill edge, when its M=8 vs. M=18; HU, is not a tremendous factor...to figuring out the equation.

I didn't say it as an endorsement to play distracted.

[mjkidd]

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The goal of a SNG is to make it into the money, the steapest payout jump is from 4th to 3rd. Therefore with 2 others all in and the chip leader also calling, you're in a good spot to move into 3rd place. The fold is right here just as it is sometimes right to fold aces in a super satellite when you are down to 6 people and 5 pays and there is a stack shorter than you yet to play. Same principle, but not to such a strong degree as a super satellite.


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The prize structure is 5/3/2. It is not 1/1/1 like a satellite. You're comparing apples and oranges.

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actually it's usually more like 10/10/10, which makes it even less comparable

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Jeez. No. It's more like 57/57/57. COME ON!

[Copernicus]

This thread is great encouragement that sit n goes will continue to be profitable.

[UMTerp]

I don't understand why these SNG questions get so many responses. Assign hand ranges to the three opponents, and run some ICM numbers. Thread over.

KK is a trivial fold here, and AA is probably a close decision.

And FWIW, the 2000-chip stack should have the best hand here more often than the other two.

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If the players are good, thinking players, I'd probably say something like the following is reasonable:

1500: AK, 88+. Needs a good hand, but can't play super duper tight, because he knows you're likely to play this hand no matter what, and he's in the blind next hand. He's only pushing the lower end of this range thinking he'll be up against you a lot of the time with two random cards.

2000: QQ+, possibly JJ. Knows the 1500-stack has a hand, yet pushed anyway. It's clear he could likely fold into the money at this point since the 1500 stack is playing, and either UTG or you will be really short (or busted) after this hand.

9000: He could be playing pretty wide here, since even if he loses, the bubble may continue, and could still be exploitable for him. He has something, but it isn't necessarily as premium as the other two. Suited connectors and aces are in some players' ranges here, as well as all the premium hands obviously.

You clearly don't want to play this pot with KK. Heck, if the 2000-stack is tight enough, his range alone might be ahead of you.

[Copernicus]

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I don't understand why these SNG questions get so many responses. Assign hand ranges to the three opponents, and run some ICM numbers. Thread over.

KK is a trivial fold here, and AA is probably a close decision.

And FWIW, the 2000-chip stack should have the best hand here more often than the other two.

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If the players are good, thinking players, I'd probably say something like the following is reasonable:

1500: AK, 88+. Needs a good hand, but can't play super duper tight, because he knows you're likely to play this hand no matter what, and he's in the blind next hand. He's only pushing the lower end of this range thinking he'll be up against you a lot of the time with two random cards.

2000: QQ+, possibly JJ. Knows the 1500-stack has a hand, yet pushed anyway. It's clear he could likely fold into the money at this point since the 1500 stack is playing, and either UTG or you will be really short (or busted) after this hand.

9000: He could be playing pretty wide here, since even if he loses, the bubble may continue, and could still be exploitable for him. He has something, but it isn't necessarily as premium as the other two. Suited connectors and aces are in some players' ranges here, as well as all the premium hands obviously.

You clearly don't want to play this pot with KK. Heck, if the 2000-stack is tight enough, his range alone might be ahead of you.

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Exactly. The only area I would differ is suited connectors being in the range for the 9k stack. With everyone else all in he doesnt have implied odds to hit a long shot, and with Mr 2000 likely to have the best hand his lead is cut from 6500 if he folds to 1500 if he calls and loses (assuming hero folds, which should be a no brainer).

AA is close here, not so much because of its winning potential against 3 other hands, but because it reduces the chances of Mr 9000 dominating the other two, or Mr 2k dominating Mr 1500.

[leaponthis]

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ICM

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O.K for an old fart that is willing to learn, where do I find the ICM information?

leaponthis

[elrudo]

I agree with UMTerp that once you know the payout-structure and have a reasonable estimate of the pushing and calling ranges, this is just a simple ICM-problem.

Plug it in SNGPT/sngwiz and presto.

Or is there reason why the underlying ICM assumptions ( equal skill etc ) are not valid ?

Leaponthis: start in the SingleTableTournaments Forum FAQ, you'll be directed to this ancient post:

HERE

[jogsxyz]

Don't assign ranges. Call yourself D.
A is t1500.
B is t2000.
C is t9000.
Assume you dont play. Ignore the ties. It just simplifies the calculations.
ABC means A's hand beats B's hand which beats C's hand.
There are six ways to order the results.
ABC---0+.1092
ACB---.20+d
BAC---.20+d
BCA---.20+d
CAB---.30+d
CBA---.30+d

Your new EV is on the second column. 'd' is about 0.01.

The six ordered results may vary in probability. Maybe 1/6 <u>+</u> some small fraction.
On two of the six you are playing for first place. On half you are playing for second place(one player busted).
Without making the exact calculations it's obvious your EV is higher by folding than by playing.
Your EV varies from .31 to .36 if you play and win.
The ABC order would need to be extremely high before it's correct to play. Also you would need to beat A.
So fold KK.

[The Yugoslavian]

EZ fold (assuming 50/30/20).

Btw, there is a big difference between KK and AA - esp in bubble situations like this. Altho I'd fold AA here too....like cit said, not positive it's right but it's likely to be.

Yugoslav

[cprice2]

Easy fold like others have said, because the odds are you will place after this hand. Sure is hard to give up the probable best hand though.