$16: Wait until SB to die on bubble?

[PantsOnFire]

Everybody seems to have missed one important fact. Button is gonna call so there is a good chance that SB will be knocked out right here.

I think folding is a good play here. Your two cards aren't that live. And you have button who is gonna call as well and if you both get knocked out, you will be placed 4rth.

[The Vibesman]

Ugh. Problem is SB is pushing in here when he just called in the SB; if he just called there rather than push he was looking to make some kind of a hand before committing his chips. It doesn't seem likely the flop hit button's hand so you may see SB double up here. Even if you get lucky in the SB w/ your last 180 and quadruple up, you'll be all in again the next time the SB hits you in four hands. You have some sort of chance here so I'd call.

[blackize]

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Button may call so there is some chance that SB will be knocked out right here.


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FYP

Without a read on either player I have no idea if the SB is only pushing a huge hand here or if button is calling any bet of that size, but people are generally stupid and I expect button to fold more than he should which is disastrous for you. So I think you have to call.

[FoldYourLife]

Tough spot. A lot of it depends on the button calling. It would be a disaster if you fold and button folds. At the same time, if button calls you definitely want to fold. It seems like if button will open limp like that, he'd call with a ton of hands. Still, you have so few chips that I don't think you can fold. Really, really crappy spot.

[EscapePlan9]

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I agree with sippin in both his posts.

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[Finnisher]

Complex ICM calculations are fun!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

If we assume you'll win 25% of the time and button will always call EV(call) = [0.05875 , 0.0695]

If you fold, button will always call and SB wins...
- 60% -> EV(fold) = 0.0916
- 70% -> EV(fold) = 0.0727
- 80% -> EV(fold) = 0.0538

These numbers are obviously very rough and probably not to be trusted too much. But based on them and the fact that folding leaves you with t130, I'd call.

Would anyone push anything if they were SB?

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Complex ICM calculations are fun!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

If we assume you'll win 25% of the time and button will always call EV(call) = [0.05875 , 0.0695]

If you fold, button will always call and SB wins...
- 60% -> EV(fold) = 0.0916
- 70% -> EV(fold) = 0.0727
- 80% -> EV(fold) = 0.0538

These numbers are obviously very rough and probably not to be trusted too much. But based on them and the fact that folding leaves you with t130, I'd call.

Would anyone push anything if they were SB?

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If I was the SB...I would be pushing mighty tight, and calling loose if the BB makes a push...c/f if Button pushes.

[MikeMcQ1]

I think you have a pretty decent chance of getting to see a HU showdown next hand the way the stacks are arranged. I'm making the assumption that button is calling >85% of the time here on this hand, and therefore I would fold.

[PantsOnFire]

On rereading the OP, I have to admit I'm not sure what OP's stack is at the point of decision. Is the stack of 780 before or after posting BB? If it is before and he now has 130 chips left, then I would change my answer to autocall.

[DaN_05]

It's 780 before posting. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Such a crappy spot. I think I'd rather fold and hope BTN calls, seems to me to be the best chance of getting ITM than hoping to hit a gutshot.