$200 Sit N Go Question #3

[Dot_the_Bot]

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Aces are so much better multiway compared to kings. We both know there is a large gap between AA and KK. You must push with AA, IMO.

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Like Dot, I'm not sure about the math, but in a 4-Handed multiway, I'd like to see the numbers on AA v 3(r) and KK v 3(r). The only negative variance kings experience over aces is the presence of an ace on the flop, or the possibility of AA in the pocket. I don't think they are really "so much better" in a 4 handed push assuming someone doesn't already have AA.


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Well, I know the match-ups; AA is generally going to be somewhere around 55-65%; and the other likely holdings swim around 9-18%; KK is 45% (and as low as 39% if someone has AK) and the other likely holdings swim around 15-20%. But the amtchup numbers arn't the equation itself.

The issue is it is equally possible for four people to remain if you go all-in than if you don't. But if that happens and you don't go in, it would mean that the small stack won, and the middle stack won the side pot- putting the small stack at 4.5K, and the middle stack at 1K- with the big blind on the way you still have a decent shot at 3rd. But you have to figure that there is a less than 50% shot of that happening (everyone staying in); whereas KK probably has about 40% shot of surviving...and alot of other likely situations that I don't feel like typing because most of us can figure it out...so, duh. I don't have to work the numbers to see they would = freaking fold!!!

With AA...probably still a fold but the difference is great enough to make me want to see the numbers.

[Dot_the_Bot]

I gots no pokerstove- yo.

and that's just the beginning...okay, okay, plus Im lazy and extremely busy trying to sound like I know something on a forum...and watching hbo on demand.

[LandonM]

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Why?

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Because the premise of your hypothetical shifts the imperative from the cards themselves to the financial implications of tournament placement. If one would fold the second best starting hand while short-stacked at a 4 handed table in order to move into the money, that same logic continues over to the best starting hand, since the impetus is now on the certainty of some reward rather than the likelihood of greater success.

[Landlord79]

The goal of a SNG is to make it into the money, the steapest payout jump is from 4th to 3rd. Therefore with 2 others all in and the chip leader also calling, you're in a good spot to move into 3rd place. The fold is right here just as it is sometimes right to fold aces in a super satellite when you are down to 6 people and 5 pays and there is a stack shorter than you yet to play. Same principle, but not to such a strong degree as a super satellite.

[Dot_the_Bot]

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If you fold you have 675 chips remaining. You'll be in for the small blind and probably muck that hand too to be consistant. That'll leave you with 475 chips after you ante-up OTB. You'll be virtually forced to play anything in your big blind. The majority of your hopes pin on sneaking into third by one of the other players going broke on this Kings hand. I'd say about 75% of the time one of them will go broke and you'll get into third. But you'll have a very neglidgable chance at winning the tournament. So you'd get a little greater than 1.5 points by folding this hand.


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I dont know that you need to know relative skill, etc- seems like a pretty straight numbers question. Your leaving out that the big stack could knock out both players, and you take 2nd- at which point your match-ups will probably be like 30-70% to double through the big stack.

[Pauwl]

Your options here are either call or fold, so I'll consider each option separately. Here are the possible outcomes for each option and your resulting chip stacks.

I'll use a number system to label the other 3 players as follows:

(1): 9000
(2): 2000
(3): 1500
(You): 1000



1. You Call

You Win [ (1) wins sidepot, (2)&(3) eliminated, (You):4000 (1): 9500
You win [ (2) wins sidepot, (You):4000 (3) eliminated (2):2500 (1):7000
You win [(3) wins sidepot, (2) wins 2nd sidepot (You):4000 (3): 1500 (2):1000 (1):7000
You win [(3) wins sidepot, (1) wins 2nd sidepot (You):4000 (3):1500 (2)eliminated (1)8000
You lose [Your stack is 0 so who cares what happens to the others


2.You Fold

(1) wins, (2) and (3) eliminated (You):675 (1):12825
(2) wins, (You):675 (3) eliminated (2):5825 (1):7000
(3) wins, (2) wins side pot, (You):675 (3):4825 (2):1000 (1):7000
(3) wins, (1) wins side pot, (You):675 (3):4825 (2)eliminated (1):8000

These are all of the scenarios that can occur. Even with hand ranges, I don't know how to find the probability of each event occurring such as (You) win main pot, (3) wins side pot, (2) wins 2nd sidepot.

I've considered using a simplified equation for this case where I would multiply my equity against all 3 players by (3)'s equity against just the other two players multiplied by (2)'s equity against only player (1). But I'm not sure if this would be accurate. Plus the ICM calculator that I normally use doesn't seem to be working right now so I can't even solve our $EV for each situation and I'm too lazy to do it by hand. I think if I at least knew the $EV for each case then I would at least have a decent idea of which play is better. Right now I'm leaning towards calling, but that's just because I like all of the scenarios where you win the main pot. The scenario that I hate when you fold is when (3) wins the main pot and (2) wins the side pot, but that scenario seems highly unlikely since I put (3) on the weakest hand of the 3 players. I dunno, go with your gut [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

As a math problem, this sucks.

[citanul]

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The goal of a SNG is to make it into the money,

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no

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the steapest payout jump is from 4th to 3rd.

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usually, again, no

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Therefore with 2 others all in and the chip leader also calling, you're in a good spot to move into 3rd place. The fold is right here just as it is sometimes right to fold aces in a super satellite when you are down to 6 people and 5 pays and there is a stack shorter than you yet to play. Same principle, but not to such a strong degree as a super satellite.

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sometimes one can reach correct conclusions off of incorrect basis.

c

[pokerponcho]

How well the big stack plays is significant to how much money you can expect to make if you win the pot. It is important to have an idea of your expectation of both circumstances, calling and folding.

For instance, if the big stack is unbelievably tight, then he will almost certainly be a loser in a heads-up match. Then you win.

It's important not to play distracted poker and figure out your opponents tendancies. This goes double for the end of a sit 'n go. It's the difference between knowing how well you well do and like sorta knowing how well you will do in the long run.

[pokerponcho]

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The goal of a SNG is to make it into the money, the steapest payout jump is from 4th to 3rd. Therefore with 2 others all in and the chip leader also calling, you're in a good spot to move into 3rd place. The fold is right here just as it is sometimes right to fold aces in a super satellite when you are down to 6 people and 5 pays and there is a stack shorter than you yet to play. Same principle, but not to such a strong degree as a super satellite.


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The prize structure is 5/3/2. It is not 1/1/1 like a satellite. You're comparing apples and oranges.

[murfnyc]

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The goal of a SNG is to make it into the money, the steapest payout jump is from 4th to 3rd. Therefore with 2 others all in and the chip leader also calling, you're in a good spot to move into 3rd place. The fold is right here just as it is sometimes right to fold aces in a super satellite when you are down to 6 people and 5 pays and there is a stack shorter than you yet to play. Same principle, but not to such a strong degree as a super satellite.


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The prize structure is 5/3/2. It is not 1/1/1 like a satellite. You're comparing apples and oranges.

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actually it's usually more like 10/10/10, which makes it even less comparable