$200 Sit N Go Question #3

[pokerponcho]

Everybody says they lean towards folding. I don't have a mathematical gut, so I'm gonna try to crunch some numbers.

First of all, it's 675 chips to you, not 775.

Second of all, when calculating or contemplating EV in terms of SNGs I use points. You get 5 points for first (50% of the prize pool). You get 3 points for second (30% of the prize pool). You get 2 points for second (20% of the prize pool). And of course, you get 0 points if you get busted. I label this a 5/3/2 ("five-three-two") structure.

The actual buy-in of the tournament is not relavent. All that matters is the probability that you'd get 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or go Bust.

I don't have the time to do hand line-ups for this. But I think that if you play this hand you'll get to 4000 chips about 40%-50% of the time. Naturally, if you lose this hand, you get busted since you started the hand with the least number of chips.

Now we need to calculate the odds of getting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or Bust, if you win this hand. This depends on how fast the blinds go up and so on. But lets just assume its 15 minute blinds at Stars.

Also, we need to know our relative skill to the other players, especially the chip leader. The most important question is, "can I take this guy heads-up if I win it?"

Well, absent of other variables I'd calculate like this. If you win you should have about 35% chance to win the SNG. You should have about a 50% chance of getting 2nd. You should have about a 10% chance of getting 3rd. And yes, you can still win this pot and go bust about 5% of the time (especially if the structure is bad). If you play and win the pot you get 3.45 points. If you play and lose the pot you get 0 points, butso. On average that is 1.5525 points.

If you fold you have 675 chips remaining. You'll be in for the small blind and probably muck that hand too to be consistant. That'll leave you with 475 chips after you ante-up OTB. You'll be virtually forced to play anything in your big blind. The majority of your hopes pin on sneaking into third by one of the other players going broke on this Kings hand. I'd say about 75% of the time one of them will go broke and you'll get into third. But you'll have a very neglidgable chance at winning the tournament. So you'd get a little greater than 1.5 points by folding this hand.

My estimates are very rough. But it illustrates that it's a close decision and that there are several factors into concideration.

When I play sit 'n gos, I always think I can take the guy heads-up if I get to him so I gamble here and try to win the whole damn thing. But, Aces would be much stronger than Kings in this scenario. If someone has an overcard it kinda sucks.

Also, this illustrates that you shouldn't get yourself to this point. Sometimes it's unavoidable. But don't let yourself be on the verge of the bubble. Life just sucks for you when you're down there. It's better to push with a bad hand rather than to wait and get busted with a good one. As soon as you're chipped away though... you're in deep trouble. You can't even always play Kings!

[pokerponcho]

I'm not convinced you are virtually guarenteed 3rd though. However, if one of the 1500 or 2000 lose the pot, they will be in blind before you are in blind. So perhaps the chances at third are better than 75% like I thought they were. What do you think the chances are you arrive at third? How do you calculate it?

[pokerponcho]

Aces are so much better multiway compared to kings. We both know there is a large gap between AA and KK. You must push with AA, IMO.

[Dot_the_Bot]

you can run the numbers- Im not sure about the Aces.

[LandonM]

[ QUOTE ]
Aces are so much better multiway compared to kings. We both know there is a large gap between AA and KK. You must push with AA, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like Dot, I'm not sure about the math, but in a 4-Handed multiway, I'd like to see the numbers on AA v 3(r) and KK v 3(r). The only negative variance kings experience over aces is the presence of an ace on the flop, or the possibility of AA in the pocket. I don't think they are really "so much better" in a 4 handed push assuming someone doesn't already have AA.

There are tactical considerations as well.
In the absence of pocket aces, there is a pretty good chance that at least one or two of the pushers have an ace in their hand, reducing the chances at a draw.

The 9K stack very well may be calling with any drawing hand of any substance in that position (medium or high suited connectors, etc) given his chip advantage.

Lots to consider, but if you would fold with kings here based solely on the financial consideration, you would pretty much have to fold with aces as well.

[Phanekim]

if 9k guy wins...u get 2nd.

if 2k wins...the 1.5k loses

if 1.5k wins...the 2k is faced with a side pot with 9k.

You don't need to calculate exactly to know that you get a lot for just merely sitting this baby out.

[pokerponcho]

Against a field, pocket aces expected to hold at least 45% of the time regardless of what your opponents hold, provided it's not aces. Sometimes it's significantly greater than that. With AA, JAM!

[Unknown Soldier]

just another ICM calculation, someone run some numbers

[pokerponcho]

Rather than complaining about my initiative, why don't you take some initiative. I've run the numbers before in various situations. I assure you that is the trend you would find if you took the initiative to run the numbers.

[David Sklansky]

"Lots to consider, but if you would fold with kings here based solely on the financial consideration, you would pretty much have to fold with aces as well."

Why?