PP 33 speed: AKs postflop donk play

[aghasax]

Yeah I guess I donked this up betting the flop.

1) This seems like a good spot for a c/r allin?

2) Is 1) better than just pushing the flop? (I'm not sure if I can call if someone else push, tell me)

3) As played I can't fold to the push (there's a lot in the pot and I have lots of outs)?

PartyPoker $33 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t40 (10 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t1820)
UTG+1 (t2520)
MP1 (t1680)
MP2 (t2000)
MP3 (t1600)
CO+1 (t1900)
CO (t2560)
Button (t1920)
SB (t1920)
BB (t2080)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t120</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t120, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO+1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t100, BB calls t80

Flop: (t480) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
<font color="red">SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t240</font><font color="red">, MP1 folds, SB raises to t1800(All-in)</font>, BB folds, Hero realizes he has no plan and can't play postflop poker

[mightyrick]

Call. IIRC, AK is 50% to hit the pair by the river. So, a coin flip on that. But the flush draw makes it much more palatable.

[aghasax]

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Call. IIRC, AK is 50% to hit the pair by the river. So, a coin flip on that. But the flush draw makes it much more palatable.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] In my oddschart a flush draw with two overs is about 50% to hit an out on turn or river

[The Vibesman]

I don't know about the check-raise all-in play. For one thing, there's only one player left to act behind you, and no guarantee he'll bet. Also, you wouldn't be getting the odds to call a push without the additional money in the pot, so if you check and MP1 pushes and the others fold, you'd have to fold. If you check and MP1 checks, and the turn doesn't help you, then you may have checked yourself out of the pot. I wouldn't mind getting my money in on this flop; you have at the very least 9 outs, and possible as many as 15. I very much doubt you have less than 12 outs here, I think a set might play a little slower. With 12 outs you are about 44% to win, so as played you need to call the push, getting 1.6 to 1.

Personally I would have led out for more than half the pot on the flop, maybe 2/3-full pot sized bet. Then the call is even clearer.

I'm curious as to what the argument would be for not betting this flop.

[aghasax]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about the check-raise all-in play. For one thing, there's only one player left to act behind you, and no guarantee he'll bet. Also, you wouldn't be getting the odds to call a push without the additional money in the pot, so if you check and MP1 pushes and the others fold, you'd have to fold. If you check and MP1 checks, and the turn doesn't help you, then you may have checked yourself out of the pot. I wouldn't mind getting my money in on this flop; you have at the very least 9 outs, and possible as many as 15. I very much doubt you have less than 12 outs here, I think a set might play a little slower. With 12 outs you are about 44% to win, so as played you need to call the push, getting 1.6 to 1.

Personally I would have led out for more than half the pot on the flop, maybe 2/3-full pot sized bet. Then the call is even clearer.

I'm curious as to what the argument would be for not betting this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks!

My reasoning for not betting the flop is that I'm building a large pot with only a draw, and I'll miss the turn most times. This puts me in a difficult spot on the turn? I'd much rather check to be able to c/r allin, or get another card for free which is also good. But obviously I don't know, that's why I'm posting.
As you said theres also backdraws with checking, and as the pot is already big when it's checked to me on the flop I was thinking pushing first in might be good with my nice draw.

[restrikt]

Bet 300 at least, call a push.

[The Vibesman]

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My reasoning for not betting the flop is that I'm building a large pot with only a draw,

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You also want to consider that often on this flop, you still have the best hand, and if you do, your opponents are drawing to 4-6 outs. You don't want to give free cards in this situation.

A first-in push has a ton of fold equity, obviously. It seems tho that the only hands that will call are those we only have 9-12 outs against; I'm not sure what that does to our EV in that situation. As you said, tho, the pot is already big; winning now can't be bad. I guess the only thing I don't like about the all-in play is it looks too much like a draw; a made hand would usually try for more of a value bet. You don't want to be that guy whose bets are easily interpreted by the other players at the table. You have to nmake decent sized continuation bets sometimes when you don't have a made hand on the flop. Here there are three players against you, normally not good for a c-bet, but there are other considerations; two of the players are in the blinds and called after another cold-caller, getting a good price on their hands; both have checked the flop, so the easy explanation is that they don't have anything. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume none of these guys have 5-3, so the only reasonable draw on this flop is one you have the best of. So the presence of extra callers is not as problematic as if you were called in a few spots by later position players and found yourself first or second to act among 4 players. Another point is that you do "only" have a draw, but it is an incredibly strong draw that may well be the favorite to win right now. Also, as I said before, you may well have the best hand right now.

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and I'll miss the turn most times. This puts me in a difficult spot on the turn?

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Let's look at that; say you bet t300 and are called by one player. The turn is a blank. SB or BB may have called and may now check to you, that is obviously pretty good, and a chance to take a free card, especially if you know the caller to be a reasonable player. If one of them calls the flop and pushes the turn into you, then you will be in a rough stiuation indeed, with 2480 in the pot and you needing to call 1400; you'll need 2.1-1 to call if you think all 15 outs are good, and you're not even getting that. Note that this isn't a play you see an awful lot of, though. In most cases the blind will check to you on the turn. Also note that if you bet almost the pot on the flop, t450, then there is t2630 in the pot when the blind pushes and you have to call 1250, that is just about the 2.1-1 you would need to call. Again, note that the blind call/push is not a play you will see a whole hell of a lot. John Harrington says in his books that you want to make decisions early in a hand that make decisions easier later in the hand; this is an example of that kind of thinking.

The toughest decision comes when MP1 calls the flop, and we are out of position on the turn; but again, this is where our play on the flop makes our play on the turn easier. Again, a bet of t450 on the flop will give us the odds to call a push on the turn from MP1. We'll be getting even better odds due to MP1's smaller stack. Whether or not to push into MP1 can be kind of read-dependent. If you think MP1 will give you a free or absurdly cheap card (is he one of those guys that always min-bets, or hardly ever bets?) than you can check. Against more aggressive players, probably just go all-in; even if he calls you are getting a good price from the pot, and the additional fold equity is pretty big; if he holds an underpair to the queen it will be hard for him to call, and if he does have top pair than he was probably going to put you all-in on the turn anyway (talking about a player of normal aggression levels.) Let him make the tough decision.

BTW, it's entirely possible that my analysis is completely wrong as well; I've been playing these for a while but really just started studying these concepts; I used to just play these as a change of pace from limit ring games, but lately I've been playing more of them simply because the ring games haven't been as good as they used to be. So take it all with a grain of salt, and if anyone can point out anything grossly wrong, I'd definitlely appreciate it.


[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[mmorpg]

c-bet into 3 players?
I think I c/f this one

[sippin_criss]

[ QUOTE ]
c-bet into 3 players?
I think I c/f this one

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nut no pair and flush draw is like, basically is fine to get ai most times.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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Personally I would have led out for more than half the pot on the flop, maybe 2/3-full pot sized bet. Then the call is even clearer.

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I really don't like making big bets with the nut flush draw. His 1/2 pot was perfect. You want to encourage other flush draws to call, or to CR allin.