Trips vs Trips

[margrades]

Whats the probablility of losing to a higher set on the flop? the flop was 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I had pockets 7's he had pocket 10's

[jvans]

I remember reading about this in H0H either vol 1 or 2, 1/100 times you flop a set your opp will flop a higher one a flop like this I have no problem getting all my money in.

[AaronBrown]

If the flop has three different ranks, and you have a pair matching the middle rank, there are 47 cards you haven't seen. Those 47 cards can be combined 47*46/2 = 1,081 different ways. Three of those ways represent a higher set. So the chance that two random cards make a higher set is 3/1,081 = 0.28%.

With nine other players, the chance that one of them has a higher set is 9 times that, or 2.5%. If you hold bottom set, there are twice as many ways for you to lose, so you can approximately double the probabilities.

But these are just card probabilities, not poker. If someone makes a big bet on that flop, you have to consider what else they might have. It could be TT, 22, KK, AT, T2, 89 or something else or a bluff. Some of those hands (like T2) are unlikely to see the flop (unless there was no raise and it comes from the big blind). Others (like KK) are likely to raise preflop.

When you look over the possible hands and see which ones seem to fit the players and the betting, you might think there's a 25% chance of TT, or very little. That's the important probability.