#1
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Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
$10 buy-in HU SNG. Started with 20/40 blinds and 2000 chips. About 15 hands in, I have 1800, they have 2200. Villian seems passive/aggressive: Limps often pre-flop. Doesn't take stabs at small pots. If they bet, they bet 2/3+ pot.
I'm SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and limp. Villian raises to 100. I call. Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (280t) Villan bets 200, I call. Turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (680t) Villian shoves, I have 1400 left behind. Anyone fold this huge draw with one to come? |
#2
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
You are receiving pot odds of 680+1400:1400 which equates to 1.48:1 . So you need about a 1/2.48= 40 % chance of winning to make the call worthwhile .
Using the 2x rule , you have about a 15*2=30% chance of making your hand . verdict: fold |
#3
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
Based on your numbers, you have more than 1400 left behind. This is a simple fold. You know eight high will not win a showdown, and you don't have odds to draw to 15 outs.
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#4
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
I take it you two are assuming the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not an out for me?
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#5
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
I assume they are both outs. That leaves you 9 flush outs and 6 straight outs, for 15 outs. You don't have odds.
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#6
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
Remember not to overcount your outs .
You have 9+8-2 =15 outs You have to subtract 2 because 2 of your straight outs can also be flush outs . |
#7
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
[ QUOTE ]
Remember not to overcount your outs . You have 9+8-2 =15 outs You have to subtract 2 because 2 of your straight outs can also be flush outs . [/ QUOTE ] I knew I was missing something. |
#8
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Re: Huge Draw on Turn. Huge overbet by villian.
He could very well be pushing a higher diamond draw therefore even if you getting around even odds or even a little better I would fold.
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