Big pot, tough choice...

NigelSmith · #1 12-29-2006, 10:01 AM

I think this was a close one -- but I'm not too good at implied odds. Call or fold?

MP1 - 58.3/8.3/0.7
CO - 30.8/1.5/1.0
BB - 53.2/17.0/2.86

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero caps, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (24SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, Hero...

Not too worried about BB, who would have called that flop with almost any pocket pair. But the two passives coming to life had me putting them on a Jack each, and me drawing to my Kings.

Comments? Was even the first flop bet a spew?

TIA,

Nigel

jaxUp · #2 12-29-2006, 10:27 AM

first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

Befolder · #3 12-29-2006, 12:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
first flop raise is excellent. You can probably drop it here. If you had different position I might say call and fold if it's 2 to you on the turn, but being sandwiched (a Hero sandwich, get it) you can't make that play. Just drop it here I think.

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Ironically, the fact that you said, "get it," is what makes it funny.

OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.

We're going to find at least one jack here a lot and should get out cheap when the aggression starts heating up.

threads13 · #4 12-29-2006, 12:16 PM

I think the flop raise was a little bit of a problem because it doesn't protect your hand. You have a pretty strong hand and the pot is humongous so you need to knock the other players out. The only way to do that is to call the bet and then plan on raising the turn. By raising the flop you were offering the field 13.5:1 which doesn't really give them a chance to make a mistake. The only hands that would correctly fold would be PP's. Sure, the raise has value but we know what our buddy Ed Miller says about these spots.

As played I think you can call to the turn and reevaluate. It certainly looks like you are behind to either trips or a boat but you are getting 44:2 on a call which is enough to call just to hit your 2 outs.

Ricks · #5 12-29-2006, 12:25 PM

This is an easy call. You almost have pot odds to draw to another King and your implied odds are huge.

Clownfish · #6 12-29-2006, 01:18 PM

A question on your reads from the villains, how many hands is this over? MP1 is posting from MP1, this is a sign of a bad player. You give his agg as .7. Was this known at the time or after the session? Given that he can just be one of the BB types (50/20/3), his coming to life could be anything, even a weak 6.

As threads stated, easy call getting 22:1. I'm not so sure this is really ever a fold with so many coming along. Every bet you face still gives you huge odds and while it seems pretty clear that you are way behind, you only need to be ahead 5% of the time for this to be +EV. Combine this with our 2 outs, folding this may not be correct even if turn action is scary.

As for the raise preflop, that is an easy raise for value. This pot is huge. There is absolutely no chance you can protect your hand so raise it up. Even if it checked around on the flop, a raise on the turn is still 13:1 for anyone looking to call. They would be right to call with anything, even a gutshot.

threads13 · #7 12-29-2006, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A question on your reads from the villains, how many hands is this over? MP1 is posting from MP1, this is a sign of a bad player. You give his agg as .7. Was this known at the time or after the session? Given that he can just be one of the BB types (50/20/3), his coming to life could be anything, even a weak 6.

As threads stated, easy call getting 22:1. I'm not so sure this is really ever a fold with so many coming along. Every bet you face still gives you huge odds and while it seems pretty clear that you are way behind, you only need to be ahead 5% of the time for this to be +EV. Combine this with our 2 outs, folding this may not be correct even if turn action is scary.

As for the raise preflop, that is an easy raise for value. This pot is huge. There is absolutely no chance you can protect your hand so raise it up. Even if it checked around on the flop, a raise on the turn is still 13:1 for anyone looking to call. They would be right to call with anything, even a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course the PF cap is fine. I am confused as to what you are saying though...

If you call the flop and it gets call around it will be 16BB on the turn. If you get bet into and raise it you can cut the odds to 9.5:1 which is good enough to get your gutshots out.

This is assuming a lot of course, I don't think it will get call around very often and we know now that is going to get raised behind us.

As played...
I don't think you are going to make a lot of money calling down in this spot because you are beaten here so often and you are likely to have to have to put at least 3 bets in to go to show down.

Given our read, I would think that MP has a strong hand given that he donk/capped the flop but, I wouldn't put him on only trips. J6 and 66 seem like a posbilitiy, maybe even getting funny with AA(doubt it though). I think the standard wait until the turn would apply for him.

CO doesn't worry me as much because of his stats. He could be playing lots of PP's this way or a pair of 6's.

EDIT: TO INCLUDE "As played..."

Christian_Peters · #8 12-29-2006, 01:50 PM

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OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.

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Only 6 players saw the flop. But I agree, you're drawing to 2 outs too often and w/ terrible relative position, you can get into serious trouble on turn.

Clownfish · #9 12-29-2006, 01:51 PM

Wow, some good math on my part.

I do agree that you aren't making money here often but, I don't think it is -EV either. You are going to have close enough odds to draw to your 2 outs with the small chance that villains are way out of line with hands that we beat.

Befolder · #10 12-29-2006, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

OP. We're not getting out of this pot alive anymore than 20% or so w/ 10 players going to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only 6 players saw the flop. But I agree, you're drawing to 2 outs too often and w/ terrible relative position, you can get into serious trouble on turn.

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Are my eyes playing tricks on me again? Sheesh!