Is this a good spot for an Isolation raise?

[seke2]

BriPlay, I'm noticing a trend in your posts. You focus way too much on your hand, and ignore a lot of other factors.

[hamnegger]

i dont like this play id fold ace 4 stinks and is easily dominated i dont think the deadmoney compensates

[AceLuby]

fold PF, this is not an isolation hand.

[qwertyui9]

Reading a couple of the later reponses I dont think iv explained what I mean here too well. This was designed to squeeze the cold caller out of the hand and to get me hu with the desperate raiser in EP.

As the UTG player has 2 bbs left I assumed he would be pushing 40/50% of hands here as hel have to go with his next hand anyway. The caller looks like he has a hand hes prepared to take this guy on with but not strong enough to raise. Pushing him out will give me a shot to win a pot around half my stack for 1/6 - 1/5 of my stack where I will be in reasonable shape.

Ive seen a few successful players make this sort of move recently when they have a big stack. They dont necessarily think their hand is best but feel the gamble for more chips is worth it to increase their stack further.

Looking at the hand now it looks loose and a bit of FPS but I was wondering if others ever make moves in these sort of spot without premium cards to advance their standing in the torny?

[BriPlay]

OK, I'm all ears..what other factors? That's why I'm here..to learn

specific to this thread; what factors do you think make this a push here?

thanks for any input

Brian

[seke2]

Bri, read my first post in the thread, I identified some of the common key factors to consider in resteal situations and why this is a decent spot. I don't think it's ideal, but a push could be +EV, or if it's -EV, it wouldn't take much of a change in the stack sizes/hand strength to swing it +EV.

[BriPlay]

Good question.
IMHO I'd want to have a good strategic reason to get involved with this action. One that comes to mind is when play is near bubble, or near getting to final table, and 'guy to be isolated' is midstak not wanting a confrontation. Chips from first allin need to be reasonable enuf that with the call its good for your chip position, so I guess I'd have to be top end of midstak, so that these chips pull me out of the mean and allow me to be more aggressive, etc. (um how about i have 20k avg is 17k, allin is 5k call 5k; if i am successful i have 30k, if i lose 15k and still ok)

To tell you the truth I dont think I've ever done this move in a tourny. Personally I would not do it w/o a clear knowledge this guy is folding, or a hand where I'm ok if he calls.

any other ideas on this?

Brian

[BriPlay]

here's one i just did
see if you agree
brian


PokerStars Game #7656126602: Tournament #39160409, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/12/29 - 00:09:55 (ET)
Table '39160409 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: BriPlay (4570 in chips)
Seat 3: DaEmbezzler (3335 in chips)
Seat 4: rjinnj (750 in chips)
Seat 6: Luc_Coolhand (2635 in chips)
Seat 9: reminiss (2210 in chips)
reminiss: posts small blind 75
BriPlay: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BriPlay [Qd Qs]
DaEmbezzler: folds
rjinnj: raises 600 to 750 and is all-in
Luc_Coolhand: folds
reminiss: calls 675
BriPlay: raises 3820 to 4570 and is all-in
reminiss: folds

[qwertyui9]

nh, definitely agree with this. The thing is your hand is very strong and likely to be ahead. The situations i've been meaning to highlight are ones where your hands are likely flips and maybe even slightly behind against one player.

This situation only applies if you have a big stack and are willing to gamble a small part of your stack to try and gain a lot more, as this could be beneficial future in the tourny.

I'l try and do some math on the example given, plz help me out if im wrong here.

Pot when it gets to me=800+1600+3200+3200=8800. Assuming I will get it hu with the short UTG raiser I'm getting 2.75 to 1 from the pot which means I only need ~ 27% equity against his range.

As the raiser looks v. desperate here I'l try and put some numbers to a wide range:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1:44.3778 % 37.96% 06.42% { Ac3c }
Hand 2:55.6222 % 49.20% 06.42% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Now this is looks like a +ev situation if everyone else folds. However as the caller is getting ~ 2 to 1 on his money and is likely to call this clearly lowers the ev of the play. Running a hand like 84o gives ~ 32 % against this range so you could try and make a case for making the same move, which i would never consider but i find quite interesting.

This particular spot is v uncommon in tourny situations with utg being so short but ive tried to highlight what i mean here. I read a post on here a while back saying taking -ev gambles for a small portion of your chips can be +ev for the rest of the tourny as you can really put this extra chips to good use, which is kind of what im trying to get at here.

This is the first time if really thought about this type of move with a relatively weak hand so id be interested to hear thoughts on what ive said here. cheers.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
here's one i just did
see if you agree
brian


PokerStars Game #7656126602: Tournament #39160409, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2006/12/29 - 00:09:55 (ET)
Table '39160409 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: BriPlay (4570 in chips)
Seat 3: DaEmbezzler (3335 in chips)
Seat 4: rjinnj (750 in chips)
Seat 6: Luc_Coolhand (2635 in chips)
Seat 9: reminiss (2210 in chips)
reminiss: posts small blind 75
BriPlay: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BriPlay [Qd Qs]
DaEmbezzler: folds
rjinnj: raises 600 to 750 and is all-in
Luc_Coolhand: folds
reminiss: calls 675
BriPlay: raises 3820 to 4570 and is all-in
reminiss: folds

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not isolation, that's a value push.