Overcalling 3 all ins with 47off, donkey, or smart trappy play?

[betgo]

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I'm not much of a number crunchers and we don't have the other people stacks but I know the estimations I've done in similar spots like this the most +EV move is shoving.

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You are only shoving to isolate. The expected profit is not huge playing 74o with pot odds against the short stack. It is by no means obvious that everyone folds. Do you really want to play 74o for half of your stack. This is a very easy fold. Some people here have FPS.

Fold > call > push.

[Fiksdal]

[ QUOTE ]
Dealt to shaundeeb [6c 7c]
steve_u: raises 800 to 1600
playboy198 is disconnected
playboy198 is connected
playboy198: folds
cardius#1: calls 1600
JDL41: calls 1600
FinnenKaj: folds
oakuspokus: raises 3080 to 4680 and is all-in
shaundeeb: raises 3080 to 7760


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't usually do numbers much myself, but I thought I'd try some on this one. Anyone correct me if I'm doing something wrong.

Let's give the shortstack who pushes a range of 66+,A8s+, A9+,KJ+


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.4744 % 65.18% 00.29% { 66+, A8s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo }
Hand 2: 34.5256 % 34.23% 00.29% { 7c6c }

So you've got 34% equity against this range.

When the action comes to you, the pot conatains t11800. You isolation minraise. IF everyone else folds, you had to put in t4680 for a shot at the current pot. These are very nice pot odds of 3.36 to 1. You now need to win only 22.9% of the time, and your equity against villains range is better than this, so this would be +EV in itself.

The obvious problem, is that you don't know that everyone will fold. The UTG minraiser could have a real monster, for the calculation above I have assumed that everyone will fold every time. This is most certainly not the case.

Some times the UTG minraiser will re-push. This will obviously suck a lot for you, now you have not just lost the call of that t4680, but also your additional raise. This [censored] seriously brings down the EV of the move you made. I'd say it's hard to calculate, but I think it takes the EV of your play down to well below neutral EV.

[J.A.K.]

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shoving>calling.

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Is this right? Obviously stacks are needed, but I feel there is little to no chance you are folding out all 3 callers. If you fold out 2 of the 3, you are already a significant dog to the shortie AI and you have ~20% equity against a reasonable range that calls the push and your repush. How do you make up the remainder of the 4-1 implied odds needed?

If you call, you are around 15% equity against the 4 hands (assuming an increasingly loose calling range due to odds). So even the 6-1 is not enough. You have a 2% chance of hitting 2 pair and about a 4% chance of flopping an OE straight draw. At least with calling, it is likely that you can get the additional $900 or so needed when you hit your hand. But on the whole I don't like either. OP got L U C K Y Fold.

[jcm4ccc]

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Obviously stacks are needed, but I feel there is little to no chance you are folding out all 3 callers.

[/ QUOTE ] I'd say there's about an 80% chance that he is folding out all 3 callers, unless one of them is short stacked.

Stack sizes are critical in order to determine whether pushing > folding. OP, can't you find the stack sizes in your saved folder?

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously stacks are needed, but I feel there is little to no chance you are folding out all 3 callers.

[/ QUOTE ] I'd say there's about an 80% chance that he is folding out all 3 callers, unless one of them is short stacked.


[/ QUOTE ]

A mid PP is getting the right price to call a range of QQ+/AK with a 2000 stack.

OP...Stacks please.

[betgo]

Just fold 74o. There is no point in flat calling with a dry sidepot. 74o is 31% against a top 30% hand, which you can credit the short stack for. When you push, you only have a slight gain by isolating, but you lose a lot playing 74o for half your stack against AJ or 99. How often you get called depends on stack sizes, buyin and table, but you probably get called atleast 40% of the time, and you may get multiple callers. Plus I don't see how the push is good for table image. The push is incredibly retarded. Any play but folding is terrible. Have you guys lost your minds?

[SteveOB]

Maybe he thought TV cameras were on and its the WSOP gotta make huge plays

[SteveOB]

But is doing shoving better then just folding? I just feel like hes trying to brag for a play, when he just got lucky and donked some dude out