At what point should i have known i was beat

surftheiop · #1 12-27-2006, 08:36 PM

First off i realize the flop bet is absolutely terrible so dont kill me too much, i wasnt really paying attention when i made it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t1565)
UTG (t1345)
UTG+1 (t1925)
MP1 (t1565)
MP2 (t1330)
Hero (t3160)
CO (t4470)
Button (t210)
SB (t3065)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t90, 3 folds, BB calls t60, MP1 calls t60.

Flop: (t285) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t90, BB folds, MP1 calls t90.

Turn: (t465) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t200, MP1 calls t200.

River: (t865) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t350, MP1 raises to t1185, Hero calls t835.

Final Pot: t3235

TwistedEcho · #2 12-27-2006, 08:49 PM

BBV

surftheiop · #3 12-27-2006, 09:55 PM

Are you saying i played it right? (If i did thats good to know).

valenzuela · #4 12-27-2006, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At what point should i have known i was beat

[/ QUOTE ]

When the chips went to him instead of you I guess.

betgo · #5 12-27-2006, 10:00 PM

Raise more preflop, bet more on the flop, bet more on the turn.

You were obviously beat when the chips were pushed to your opponent.

OneByPhi · #6 12-27-2006, 10:17 PM

As I look at how this hand unfolded, I have a few thoughts:

Your preflop raise gets called by the BB,who was already in for 30 and only has to pay 60 more to see the flop for a $165 pot (2.75:1 on his call), and MP1, who only has to pay 60 more to see the flop for a pot that has grown to $225 (3.75:1 on his call). The size of your preflop raise made the call very tempting for them both.

MP1 limps in but doesn't reraise your 3xBB preflop raise, which suggests that he almost surely doesn't have a premium hand like AA, KK, or AK that he had been hoping someone would raise so he could reraise (keep this in mind after the flop), but probably has a weak A, a low-to-middle pocket pair or some kind of drawing hand like suited connectors. BB could have almost anything, but almost certainly not AA or KK and probably not AK for the same reason.

The flop brings an A and a K, but I wouldn't be worried that either player has hit a set of As or Ks or top 2 pair. One of them might have Ax or Kx where the x is not an 8, though, and have a pair that will make them hang around as a significant underdog. It also brings a club flush draw, which as you mention, you didn't bet enough to price out. But it also has the 8, which could have hit one of the other players for either a set (if he had 88), two pair (if he had A8 or K8), or a single pair that might make them hang around after your cheap postflop bet if they had started with something like 98 or 87 suited--especially if it was in diamonds so that they also had a backdoor flush draw.

Your $90 bet into a $285 pot was not just too little to chase out the flush draw, but so little that someone with just an 8 and a backdoor flush draw might decide to call. Someone might also just hang around to see if they could take the pot away from you if another club came off. I'd agree that this small bet is a big mistake in this hand. You got the BB to fold, but you have no idea what MP1 is holding, since the price was so low a call would be reasonable for a variety of holdings.

If he flopped the set of 8s, I assume MP1 would probably sandbag and just check-call. If he had A8 or K8, I assume he would either bet out at you or check-raise to see what you did (he would have reason to worry that you had AK). His check-call makes those holdings much less likely.

The Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop looks like a great card for you. The best case is that MP1 has KQ and now thinks he has the best hand. Also, just in case MP1 had A8 or K8 and mysteriously didn't bet or check-raise post-flop, you're beating him. However, again your bet seems too small to me. You bet just $200 into a $465 pot. It costs MP1 $200 to call for a chance at a $665 pot (3.325:1). If he has the club flush draw (I assume he doesn't because the flush never comes but you say you lose), he would probably think his implied odds are good enough for a call. If he makes this call with KQ, A8, or K8, you have to wonder why he doesn't bet out or check-raise to find out where he stands, but some calling-station types play like that routinely, I know. He might also still hang around with his 98 or 87 if he thinks he can take the pot away from you with a bluff if a third club comes on the river. And, of course, if he has that set of 8s already, he's just trapping and hoping you continue to bet at the pot when he checks it to you.

When the 8 comes on the river and MP1 checks, I really think your bet is a mistake. I know you want to get some more value out of a hand that you think is almost surely best, but remember, the problem isn't whether or not you are likely to have the best hand (most likely you do), but whether or not a hand that you can beat will call another bet. The way I see it, the only hand that doesn't fold to your bet is one that beats you, so it's hard to see how a bet there has positive expectation. I guess there's always some chance that he has been calling along with A8, K8, or KQ but those are the only hands he could have that might call, and he should have raised with them earlier if he had them. I assume he either lucked out and made a set of 8s on the river or had 88 all the way and hit quads. Either way, you would have lost a lot less by just checking on the end.

This is just my 2 cents, and I know others might see things differenty, but one of the expensive lessons I have learned is to avoid bets on the end that are unlikely to be called by any hand you can beat.

OneByPhi · #7 12-28-2006, 02:20 AM

God, I can make some stupid mistakes when I'm tired. In the last paragraph of the previous post, I should have said that if he was playing A8 or K8 he just made a boat and has you beat, so KQ is the only hand that might reasonably call that you can beat.

I also failed to make another important point about why you needed to make a bigger bet after the turn. If MP1 had been on a club flush draw (I know he wasn't, but you didn't know that at the time), the last chance for you to make any money off of him was post-turn. If he hits the flush on the river, he has you beat, but if he misses, he'll just fold to any bet. So making him call a pot-sized bet is your best shot at either getting rid of the drawing hands or making him overpay significantly for drawing.

omaha · #8 12-28-2006, 02:51 AM

i was going to write something but the two responses by one byphi said exactly what i was going to

Fiksdal · #9 12-28-2006, 05:58 AM

t120 preflop

t240 on the flop

t390 on turn

Normally I'd tell you to shove river, because an eight shouldn't even be in villains range, but now that you played the hand so weakly it might be. So maybe check/call. I don't think shove is bad though, aces that made it this far will probably call.

If this hand is representative for your game, you should probably be getting a lot more agressive, and quit giving your opponents approporiate odds.

OneByPhi · #10 12-29-2006, 03:14 AM

It might also be useful to look at the hand from villain's perspective. I'm at a big handicap because I don't know what he held, but, just for the fun of it, I'm going to give him 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. First, I limp in, hoping to see a cheap flop with suited connectors and hoping that 4 or 5 others limp in to give me good implied odds. My plan is to semibluff post-flop if I hit a flush draw or double-ended straight draw, check-fold if I miss completely, and play it by ear otherwise.

My plan changes a little when you raise 3xBB, but when only the BB calls and it comes back to me as a $225 pot that only costs me $60 to play, I call.

The flop isn't much for me, just bottom pair, but after I check, you make a bet that's a little less than 1/3 pot and BB goes away. I'm puzzled, but I'm definitely calling. I wonder, did you just make a monster like a set of aces or kings and you're trying to reel me in with small bets (some players do that sometimes, but smart ones don't do it when there's an obvious flush draw), or are you making a small "I-missed-the-flop-but-I-don't-want-anyone-to-make-a-huge-bet-at-me" defensive bet with something like 99 or TT or an A with a kicker you're not sure about (weak players do that sometimes, especially in the small-stakes games). I'm not sure, but I think the latter is much more likely, and with the pot offering great odds, I'll hang around and see if I can turn this into a positive, especially if a scary third club falls off on the turn.

The turn brings the disappointing Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]--not an 8 or a 9 to improve my hand and not the club I was hoping to use to represent a made flush. Even though it didn't help me at all, I assume (wrongly, it turns out) that it probably didn't help you either when you make another relatively small bet. I strongly suspect (I'm wrong of course, but this is how the hand looks to me) that you have either an A with a J, T, or 9 kicker (A9 seems the most likely of those 3 hands) or a pair like JJ, TT, or 99. You seem to be betting scared, and you're letting me hang around cheap. I wonder what hand you have put me on, but I can't really tell from your bets. You don't seem to be trying to keep me from drawing at clubs, and your betting pattern suggests weakness and tentativeness; you seem almost as if you're afraid you're already beat. I figure this call is worth it because I figure I have a good chance to bluff you off the hand even if I don't catch an 8, 9, or club on the end. Of course, it would be nice if one of those things happened, but I decide that if anything comes on the river other than a non-club A, J, T, or 9, I'm going to bet out $600 and try to steal the pot. You do have $380 invested in the hand at this point, but $600 would be a tough call for you if you really do suspect you're beat, and you'd still have $2780 left, so you're not pot-committed.

But an amazing thing happens: the river card is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], a 22:1 miracle, and I make a set that just has to have you beat. I'm almost sure you have just two pair, the 8s on the board and either aces or a pocket pair. Now the question is how to extract the most chips from you. Clearly, If I was expecting to be able to bluff you out with a $600 river bet if a blank came off, a big bet must be wrong. I could make a little "post oak bluff"-type bet and hope that you'll at least call it, or even better come over the top, but I decide that if I check you'll probably bet again and probably bet more than the little $250-$300 bet I'm considering, and then I can come over the top all-in. Hopefully, this huge, out-of-the-blue move will look like a steal attempt, and you'll call. If not, at least I'll win your last bet.

I don't know if you found this helpful, but that's my version of how the hand might look to a player with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I hope you found it useful. Notice that my phantom-player has misread your hand badly from your bets; in fact, if the last card had been a blank, he may have been crippled when he bluffed if you decided to call with AQ (a much stronger hand than he put you on). That's poker.

If you're not consistently thinking about what your opponents are holding and how hands look to them during play, I strongly recommend you start. Good luck.