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#1
12-27-2006, 08:16 PM
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raise or fold
villain is TAGgy, 35/21/1.7 after 150 hands. he paused significantly before he bet the river.
Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $10/$20 5 players Converter Pre-flop: (5 players) PokerBob is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">PokerBob raises</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, PokerBob calls. Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, PokerBob calls. Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.25BB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">PokerBob raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, PokerBob calls. River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10.25BB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, PokerBob..... 
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#3
12-27-2006, 09:55 PM
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Re: raise or fold
were you calling the turn to raise a blank river?
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#4
12-27-2006, 10:29 PM
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Re: raise or fold
[ QUOTE ]
were you calling the turn to raise a blank river? [/ QUOTE ] No, I think he was just calling down. Bob, river raise is a creative idea but too many TAGs will either have you crushed or will find a [censored] it call far too often for a raise to show a profit. Rob
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#6
12-27-2006, 10:55 PM
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Re: raise or fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] were you calling the turn to raise a blank river? [/ QUOTE ] No, I think he was just calling down. Bob, river raise is a creative idea but too many TAGs will either have you crushed or will find a [censored] it call far too often for a raise to show a profit. Rob [/ QUOTE ] he's either got AK-ATs, QQ or TT. Does he have TT enough here to make a raise profitable? That is what I am wondering.
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#7
12-27-2006, 11:17 PM
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Re: raise or fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] were you calling the turn to raise a blank river? [/ QUOTE ] No, I think he was just calling down. Bob, river raise is a creative idea but too many TAGs will either have you crushed or will find a [censored] it call far too often for a raise to show a profit. Rob [/ QUOTE ] he's either got AK-ATs, QQ or TT. Does he have TT enough here to make a raise profitable? That is what I am wondering. [/ QUOTE ] Nope. He's got 3 combos of AK, 3 of AQ, 4 of AJ, 3 combos of QQ, and 3 combos of TT. So that's 13:3 but he not only needs to have TT, but he needs to fold it too. You'd be getting 11.25:2 on a raise bluff, so you'll need him to fold 15.09% of the time overall. If he bet-folds TT 100% of the time he folds it, then he's bet-folding 18.75% of the time (3 times in 16). I think in a big pot most TAGs will make a "[censored] it" call at least 50% of the time (or will check-call here occasionally as well), but even if we say he's bet-folding 66% of the time that he holds TT, he's folding 2 times in 16, or 12.5% of the time, so it's not going to show a profit. Doesn't look quite right to me, especially when you consider he'll have ATs-A8s sometimes here as well. Rob
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#10
12-28-2006, 12:22 PM
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Re: raise or fold
KJ needs to be included. Nice post.
-DeathDonkey
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