AA fold or call, big pot

[josh_x]

Doing this from memory, i think it's more or less right

PP 1/2 or 2/4, 6-max

Folded to button who raises. He is a pretty LAGgy TAG, decent, pretty solid and agressive. I 3bet AA from sb, BB fish calls, He caps, all call.

Flop, 12sb, 3players
Q66
I lead, fish folds, button raises, i call.

Turn, 16sb, 2players
Q66, 3
I check, he bets, i raise, he 3bets, I...

Assuming i call:

River, 14BB, 2 players
Q66,3,K

I check and ?


Sorry if this is boring. No point in hiding results, he had QQ and i called down. Anyone fold knowing that he is a non-idiot? It seems i'm pretty much never ever winning (on the river).

[Allday Everyday]

I think I would have check-raised the flop.

I don't think you should fold on the turn or that hypothetical river. To do either would be a significant error IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
It seems i'm pretty much never ever winning (on the river).

[/ QUOTE ]
I definately disagree with this.

[bobhalford]

I'd either c/r the flop or bet/3bet. When I get raised on the turn after my flop play, I just call down. Certainly on the river you will feel like your hand is dead, but with over 12BBs in the pot you can't fold.

[josh_x]

On the flop i bet because i wanted the fish to stay in, because he never has more that 2 outs. The pair of 6's was important in my thought process of whether to bet or cr.

If the fish had called then i would have 3 bet but with it HU i decided to call and c/r the turn. I tend to mix it up between 3betting and waiting until the turn. I probably think 3betting would be better in retrospect but oh well, i don't think it's all that different.

When he 3bets i stop liking my hand and go into depressed call down mode. Then the King on the river makes the main hand that i am beating now beat me. So looking at it combinatorically:

AA - 1 combo
KK - 3 combo's
QQ - 3 combo's

AQ - Technically 6 combo's. Probably plays it that way up until my turn c/r where he rarely 3 bets me. If he does 3 bet i don't see him betting the river (it surely couldn't be for value, i don't think he's smart enough to bluff the river, he would check and pray). A rough guess might be 1/40 chance that he plays AQ like this. =0.15

KQ - technically 9 combo's. Should be heavily discounted based largely on his turn 3bet, and he quite possibly wouldn't raise the flop with KQ either. Very unlikely he has this here. Also i think he would be smart enough to realise that AA has him beat on this board. Rough geuss 1/40 again? = 0.225

AK - 0 combo's. I think he rarely raises this on the flop and ultra rarely 3bets on the turn with it. He never has this.

JJ, TT, 0 combo's never has this.


So that makes it 7:0.375
=18.66:1

Now the obvious problem with this is that my geusses as to how much to discount AQ and KQ are pretty much wild and bullcrap. In my mind i think 'no way he has that' and it is hard to quantify.

Most of my read came from the fact that i respected my opponent unlike 95% of players. He had played a few hands in the same way as i would have and so i generally thought that he would be thinking similarly to me and so would, like me if i were him, never have anything worse than AA in that spot on the river. That in addition to the fact that even if he didn't think at all like me he hardly ever has anything worse.

Also with regards to that whole big pot must call stuff it just seems like bull [censored] to me. Obviously if i estimate it to be somewhere around EV nuetral then it doesn't matter which side i err on (call/fold). I geuss in terms of variance/utility of money/physcological sort of things it might matter, but to be honest i don't even know which i would prefer. Would i play roulette if it was EV nuetral? I don't know. Seems a pretty similar situation.


Anyway i geuss it's just another boring big-pot-it's-close-hand. In the hand i called as i always have in those spots, but i think in the future i should actually have the balls to fold if i think it's right.

[DCWildcat]

Regardless of the line you took in this hand, folding is absolutely criminal. Don't ever do it.

[justkevin]

*Grunch*

I absolutely do not fold anywhere here. Depending on his AF, I might even cap the turn. Your fancy flop/turn play could have confused him, so you can't assume you're behind. River, I just call.

[Kerth]

I'd 3-bet the flop and call down if he caps.

[jstill]

I know u definitely wanna throw ur hand away here, the only thing i can really add to this thread is ive seen plenty of people 3bet and call a cap or cap AQs then 3bet a turn cr on Q x y z (altho here the flop was cr'd also but u get the point). altho the guy ur playing against here may not be one of the types im used to playing who will occasionally spew with something totally random (making the call down even more mandatory) just the possibility of AQ or KK here is enuff to want to call down from the turn easily. sure the river kills the most likely hand u would have beat here hed play this way but that small less than 10% chance or so of an overplayed AQ makes this a call without thinking too hard about it even if it is -EV dont sweat this decision much.

if u dont like getting 3bet and having to call down after ur turn cr id suggest 3betting the flop calling down from the cap or 3betting leading the turn and calling down from the raise (hed likely still raise KK and maybe AQ here and vb the river for u when ck'd to) both lose less when ur beat and still extract good value from the hands ur ahead of