help me understand this hand

[Johnny McEldoo]

Hi Everyone!

Been lurking for a little while and want to get active on the forums here...

Anyway, this is a hand from StoxTrader and I feel this is probably a leek in my game (I think i have some trouble folding to a river raise because of the size of the pot) and would like a better understanding of the logic here...

Here is the hand...

Full Tilt 3/6 Holdem (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: (2.5 SB) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets, UTG calls

River: (5.25 BB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, UTG checks

UTG has 10,10 and Hero takes down the pot

So here is my question:
I agree with this line in play 100%. However, StoxTrader mentions after the hand is over that the river line was close between a check-call and a bet-fold and that he probably "missed some value" on the hand (I realize that he isn't necessarily saying he made a mistake with his line but it was another option).

So let's assume he took the other line and lead out on the river and was raised. The pot is now 8.25 BB. I remember reading from some reputable book that you can almost always factor in about a 10% bluff when calculating odds/outs (I may be taking it out of context though - I don't remember the specifics but it seems possible it could apply in this scenario). This would almost justify a call plus there is a little bit of an argument to be made for a hand like A7 and a split situation.

How big would the pot need to be to justify a call here in your opinion?

Also would you make this a call if the 7 was a little higer such as a 9 since there could be a frustrated UTG busted straight out there with UTG holding J-10? There is already a chance for a busted flush to be out there...

I make these types of crying calls a little too much and would like your thoughts....

Thanks!

[Leader]

This looks like an easy bet/call to me. Maybe he had some kind of read though.

This however:

"you can almost always factor in about a 10% bluff when calculating odds/outs"

is nonsense. There are a lot of spots were it isn't close to that.

[BostonMetro]

The problem here is that if you bet the river and are raised, he probably has queens full 60% of the time, sevens full of queens 30% of the time, and a bluff ~10% of the time (probably Ace high). When he just calls he probably has sevens full of queens 30% of the time, Ace high 60% of the time and trash (misclick) 10% of the time.

The problem is that the "villains" river raising range isn't strong enough to fold the sevens full of queens, even though you can't beat any reasonable holding for the villain. I'm pretty sure Stox plays read-free poker (don't know if that has changed), so there is absolutely nothing out there that would allow him to fold.

You're right to question the hand. Of course, if Norman Chad made the same comment Stox did, they would probably tear him a new [censored] in the TV forum.