16: SB, Bubble, I think I butchered it.

[Schmitty 87]

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I believe this is the definition of being results orientated. GKA was talking about Open shoving, so this would be before you knew Villain would push over your standard raise. I don't want to get involved in a hand oop with a stack that has me covered. Especially on the bubble.

A lot of hands that Villain pushes over Hero will be folded to an open push. This includes a few lower PP's, and some weaker Ax hands. Not to mention, Villain may be pushing with trash hands. If he has any clue about bubble play, he realizes he has massive FE here. Raising standard in an obvious stealing position is just asking for a resteal push.

P.S. Hero's in the SB, not on the button.

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Wait, how am I being results oriented?

If I'm in villain's position, I am NOT pushing over the top of the sb's raise (my mistake on the btn/sb confusion) with 9 high. I'm definitely not shoving random trash from the bb without knowing that sb is only calling with big hands. And at the 16s, I'd hate to shove 78o here in villain's spot and get looked up by the sb's K10 (which is gonna happen a lot).

Sure, hero is in an obvious steal situation, but imo villain still needs a hand to shove over the top. Put yourself in villain's spot. I'm guessing hero's raise would either signal to you a huge hand or incompetence. I don't want to shove over a huge hand nor an incompetent player without a big hand myself. Also, in hero's spot, I'm raising to 550 with AA-JJ too, and in those cases I'm more than happy for villain to think he has massive fold equity.

There's still soom room to play some poker with 3k at 100/200 a25. I don't want to shove AJo here to win 400 when I can raise to 550 and win the same amount a good percentage of the time (imo the % between shove and raise doesn't decrease nearly enough for shove to be more profitable).

You definitely can't go wrong shoving, and if bb is an overly aggressive player then definitely shove. If bb has a vpip ~40+ then definitely shove too because you're gonna get called by worse hands. But against a regular, unknown 16er I think a standard raise is better.

[Rook]

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Wait, how am I being results oriented?

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You're being results orientated because you are using the fact that BB is shoving over Hero's raise as part of your argument for why a Standard raise is good here (Excuse the horrible run-on sentence please). We don't know that Villain is going to shove over your raise. What we do know is that we have a strong hand, are in a BvB situation on the bubble, and absolutely cannot call a resteal here.

The key concept here is FE. Even the most novice player understands that he's got massive FE here by restealing with a push. I've seen people do it with utter trash (talking 32o kinda trash). He might not know the term FE, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know he has it.

In the situation hero finds himself in, a standard raise is begging to be pushed over. So why put in a standard raise with a strong hand when you know you are going to have to fold to a push? Get your chips in first, and don't be results orientated if he calls with a pair and wins. It was still the right play. Villain will call enough with weaker Aces, and pairs smaller than JJ to make this move profitable.

[Schmitty 87]

No, the fact that villain is shoving over the top of hero is more of an argument to open shove, as it at least seems that villain is shoving a wide range, whereas he would only call with a narrow one. I'm arguing that villain doesn't shove over the top enough for shove to be better, acknowledging that he will sometimes (like this time).

Like I said, if you feel that villain will call with worse aces then by all means shove. If you feel he will shove over the top with a huge range, go ahead and shove too. There's clearly nothing wrong with shoving. As GKA said, it's unexploitable. However, that doesn't mean that shove is the BEST move vs. most opponents.


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In the situation hero finds himself in, a standard raise is begging to be pushed over. So why put in a standard raise with a strong hand when you know you are going to have to fold to a push?

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This statement seems to suggest that we should never raise unless we are willing to put all of our chips in. That's just bad poker. Maybe you are saying it's a bad idea with a relatively strong hand like AJ, but I'm still not buying it. Sure I'm not gonna be happy when villain shoves over the top, but that too is being results oriented on your part. Just because villain shoves this hand doesn't mean he's shoving 100% of his range (and if he's shoving 23o then it's gonna be close to 100%, which you're claiming).

In my opinion, and this is based on what I feel the regular ok $16 snger to be, a raise and a shove are going to work equally well vs. trash. Vs. monsters, a raise is obviously better. Vs. marginal hands like low pairs, worse aces, K10ish, then shove is better, but only if villain only shoves/folds. Actually, just writing this I realize that these marginal hands form a reasonably large part of villain's range, which makes me lean toward shove, but I still think that the difference in expectation is fairly small. And at the 16s, I really think it's ok to just wait a lot of times because your opponents dump of EV playing pots with each other, and it benefits you to just stay out of the way and collect the extra EV.

[Rook]

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In the <u>situation</u> hero finds himself in, a standard raise is begging to be pushed over. So why put in a standard raise with a strong hand when you know you are going to have to fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]
This statement seems to suggest that we should never raise unless we are willing to put all of our chips in. That's just bad poker.

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First, look at the bolded section, and the underlined word in particular. Second consider the situation Hero finds himself in. If he raises to 550, he is putting 18% of his stack in there. He's already the short stack to begin with. When you make that raise, you want to take the blinds down, you don't want to get in a protracted BvB battle. Neither does the person you are raising. However, from his standpoint, your raise gives him an incredible out. Push over it with any reasonable hand (and a few unreasonable ones when playing against people at the 16's). Personally, I prefer you just open fold AJ from the SB if you are going to raise then fold to a push. This is the situation I am referring to.

I am not saying to push every reasonable hand from any position at any time because you can't call a push. UTG with AJ, a standard raise is very reasonable. For one, it looks less like a steal, and more like a legitimate hand. Secondly, you aren't just facing 1 random hand, you are looking at 3 hands. If someone pushes, they have a real hand. You can't say that in the BvB situation. But you still have to fold AJ because you gave them an open invitation to resteal on you.

GKA's entire point is that Open pushing is the most straight forward unexploitable play here. When on the bubble, that's the play you want to take. You don't want to try to get tricky, because that's when you bust out. It may not be the best play, but it's not far from it. SNG's are best played when you keep it simple. Especially in the lower stakes.

[skreemer7]

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What about a limp shove here? Vil could bump it with alot of hands if you just limp.

If vil checks behind you can fire 2/3 of the pot on most flops and take it down right there, or make an easy laydown if you miss and he comes back at you.

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Now that's what I'm talking about. I like this play here. I don't see the sense in risking your your whole stack with an open push here to give yourself 400 more chips. Indeed sngpt's don't push if your over 10xBB rule must be taken with a grain of salt, it still must be taken into consideration. I feel this is an appropriate situation for that. Questions, comments, concerns on this?

[Rook]

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What about a limp shove here? Vil could bump it with alot of hands if you just limp.

If vil checks behind you can fire 2/3 of the pot on most flops and take it down right there, or make an easy laydown if you miss and he comes back at you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's what I'm talking about. I like this play here. I don't see the sense in risking your your whole stack with an open push here to give yourself 400 more chips. Indeed sngpt's don't push if your over 10xBB rule must be taken with a grain of salt, it still must be taken into consideration. I feel this is an appropriate situation for that. Questions, comments, concerns on this?

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Why is everyone trying to get tricky on the bubble with AJ?! In this situation it is a strong hand but it is by no means a monster. We do not want to either:

A) Price him into a call when he raises your limp and you push over.
B) Get a check behind and be forced to play oop the rest of the hand.

The best scenario here is that we get those "measly" 400 chips. That's nearly 15% of your current stack. It's not a trifling amount. The best way to get those chips is to push here. And again, the primary reason is FE. You have it in spades with a push. Any other play is too tricky, and too risky.

[J R DOT]

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You definitely can't go wrong shoving, and if bb is an overly aggressive player then definitely shove. If bb has a vpip ~40+ then definitely shove too because you're gonna get called by worse hands. But against a regular, unknown 16er I think a standard raise is better.

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1) TAG = vpip ~40+ ?

2) If BB is a TAG multitabler at the 16s, he may not blink at shoving 98o, depending on you - have you been stealing lots of blinds, and more specifically his?

3) BB had made a big call with a low PP, good chance he makes the reraise with one too - do you want to flip or can you find a better spot? Personally, I fold and the next time I make any move, it's a shove.


Edit - Anyone else like a raise to ~800 pre? I don't think BB would try a resteal with junk at all, as opposed to a 550 raise from SB. You would still have 2200 chips if BB still comes over the top, and would be more clear as to where you're at.