sat + sun nfl plays

riccja · #1 12-23-2006, 11:25 AM

Friday was a good day. 2-0 with the knicks winning out right as a dog and the under in laker game winning by 10 points. So two easy wins. That brings us back over +40 units and again close to a 13% return!

I have looked over the nba and nhl games today and there are many..almost 30 games. As of right now I dont see anything. It strange especially in the nba since we have had so many plays but just nothing there. Although there are 2 or 3 totals that may swing to be plays later in the day....so if you happen to be in the bellagio..feel free to ask. I dont see any of the team lines switching to plays though.

Also I dont see anything in the bowl games tonight.

So a very light day today for a change. Raiders +7 thats it

Good Luck

5:00pm
23-Dec-06 Football
Oakland Raiders (+7) -104

10:00am
24-Dec-06 Football
Spread Carolina Panthers (+6.5) -107

10:00am
24-Dec-06 Football
Houston Texans (+9) for Game -103

RickJ
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/

Record to date:

mlb
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
ncaafb
Sides 30-25-1 +5.25
o/u 10-11 -1.56
nfl
Sides 22-8-1 +13.70
o/u 7-4 +2.83
nhl
sides 27-24 +7.92
Nba
Side 40-33-1 +5.77
o/u 14-7 +6.81

Total 310 Bets + 40.29 units +12.99% Return

reachrevolver · #2 12-23-2006, 10:00 PM

It's saying something, I'm not sure what, when judging by your picks (not talking about your record, I didn't see anyone else here taking OAK +7 etc.) , you are easily the sharpest guy on this board, yet you are probably one of the least read. Keep it up!

newOcean · #3 12-24-2006, 04:40 AM

his record is indeed amazing but i'm going to have to say that this week is not going to be one of his finer weeks. OAK didn't cover as pretty much everyone said, and i think the Colts kill the texans.

Jordan · #4 12-24-2006, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think the Colts kill the texans.

[/ QUOTE ]

back it up. why? this is square thinking.

Jordan · #5 12-24-2006, 04:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's saying something, I'm not sure what, when judging by your picks (not talking about your record, I didn't see anyone else here taking OAK +7 etc.) , you are easily the sharpest guy on this board, yet you are probably one of the least read. Keep it up!

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i love rick's plays. he isn't afraid to go against the grain to churn a profit. please keep posting, i check for your posts every day.

newOcean · #6 12-24-2006, 04:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think the Colts kill the texans.

[/ QUOTE ]

back it up. why? this is square thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

? it's automatically square thinking because i didn't give my opinion?

colts are 9-0 all-time vs the texans. last time they played, colts killed them by almost 20 points. (43-24 was the final), and being that colts still have a 1st round bye to play for which means they'll show up to the game well prepared and i think i'll take a well prepared colts team against a houston team which doesn't really have anything to play for except for maybe lose for the draft.

and i'm not slandering OP in any way at all, i just disagree with his picks for this week. but gl OP.

paperchamp · #7 12-24-2006, 12:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's saying something, I'm not sure what, when judging by your picks (not talking about your record, I didn't see anyone else here taking OAK +7 etc.) , you are easily the sharpest guy on this board, yet you are probably one of the least read. Keep it up!

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, one of the only posters whose picks I actually follow (however, other people were on Oakland, ala Fezzik). I feel like I owe the man some money.

rjp · #8 12-24-2006, 12:15 PM

If bettors only did a little statistical analysis, it'd be pretty obvious why there's value with the Texans.

Troll_Inc · #9 12-24-2006, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
colts are 9-0 all-time vs the texans. last time they played, colts killed them by almost 20 points. (43-24 was the final), and being that colts still have a 1st round bye to play for which means they'll show up to the game well prepared and i think i'll take a well prepared colts team against a houston team which doesn't really have anything to play for except for maybe lose for the draft.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the Colts giving 9 points, but with a parlay and the over 47, I really like it. The parlay is nice when you have two results that are correlated.

The Colts can put a lot of points up on the board and their defense is bad. Therefore, they know they have to keep scoring and would never worry about making it look like they were "running up the score". Also 67 pts were scored the first time these two teams met. So if they cover, I think it's almost a lock that the over also hits.

Betting 10 to win 38, then
70% of the time it doesn't hit = (.70)($10)
-$7.00

30% of the time it hits (.30)(38)
+$11.40

A definite +EV play to me.

paperchamp · #10 12-25-2006, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the Colts giving 9 points, but with a parlay and the over 47, I really like it. The parlay is nice when you have two results that are correlated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't see this post until now but I would have pointed this out before the game as well. Normally if you are looking for a correlated parlay when there is big spread and you want to bet the over, you'd also bet the dog. If a team like the Texans were to cover it would probably mean a high scoring game against a team like Indy.