AK in blind battle at 6 max $50NL

[AshleyC]

Villan was 38/12 over just 50 hands. I had been playing at just 14/9 for my period at the table.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter


Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]; K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img];
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, BB raises to $4.5, Hero raises to $14.75, BB raises all-in $57.2, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $42.45 returned to BB.

Im getting great odds to call if it's a race. but I thought that there was just too great a chance he has AA/KK here to call. Weak or correct fold?

[Ryan2009]

You 3bet him OOP, a good show of strength, and he still reraises. It is AA/KK almost always.

Nice hand.

[Djeorge]

Stack sizes?

[Grrrrr]

you are getting 1.8 to 1. so basically are you getting 1/(1.8 + 1) to call this. That's about 36%.

I think it's equally likely he has AA or KK. Let's put them both at 40%.

AA vs AK = 92.51 vs. 6.17. You are seeing this 40%, so .40x.0617 = 2.5%

KK vs AK 69.46 vs. 29.70. .40x.2970 = 12%

Let's say he's pushing with JJ, QQ only 20% of the time.
QQ-JJ vs AK 56.6 vs 42.99 .4299x.2 = 9%

so you've got 9+12+2.5 =23.5%
Even if he is pushing 30% lower pairs, this is going to be a fold. Good fold.

[AshleyC]

I started the hand with $50, villan covered me.

[Marshall28]

i think u r throwing away your money if you are gonna 4bet here then fold to a push, u r only in really bad shape if he has aces. if i saw u 4bet then fold, id be doin the same crap to u with all types of hands. THE 4BET SHOULD BE THE PUSH.

[AshleyC]

[ QUOTE ]
i u r only in really bad shape if he has aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or Kings, both of which perfectly match his actions thus far.

[Grrrrr]

you didn't like my analysis ashley?

[AshleyC]

Sorry Grrrr, I like getting feedback but to be honest disagree with pushing on the 4bet. I think that such a bet makes tens / jacks etc fold but is insta-called by Aces, Kings and probably queens. I think that it's an -EV play in this spot.

[BalugaWhale]

hey man

first of all, stack sizes are crucial. I am assuming he covers you and you have a 100bb stack.

dont 4bet if you're going to fold to a push. thats just not how 4 betting works.
I'd just call here in position pf and see a flop.