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#21
12-23-2006, 05:06 AM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
One other thing to consider is the possibility that the villain is raising with a calling hand. I think against aggressive value bettors who can bet/fold some strong hands, raising with a calling hand, like Q7s or AcTx on this board for example, when a non-blank card hits, can be a good play. Since were going to call anyways, this play is a relatively inexpensive value/bluff, and it has the added kick of sometimes being called by lesser hands. [/ QUOTE ] That is actually the most interesting idea I have read here in a few days. Myself, I would call, because I have been bluffed out of too many pots I should have won by players I did not believe would bluff-raise. And this pot is IMO too big to fold against virtually anyone for one bet holding TPKK. 
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#22
12-23-2006, 07:23 AM
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Re: river fold.
I'm not worried about being bluffed but he could value raise a worse hand couldn't he? Sometimes I see people play this way with weak made hands that he thinks are good but waiting to raise the river makes it safe for him to not get 3 bet by much. Like QJ with a club wouldn't ever play this way? I'd pay this one off because like you said, you'd pay off a turn raise, this might possibly look weaker than that.
-DeathDonkey
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#25
12-23-2006, 08:04 PM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
does anyone think theres significance that its my second hand at the table? [/ QUOTE ] I think it does because he could possibly not realize who you are. Whether this makes him more or less likely to pull something dumb, I don't know. I feel that when the range of better hands played logically gets narrowed as much as it does in this hand, you should include a higher likelihood of poorly played worse hands. Others have already listed the better hands he could have here, and the better ones that are well played comprise a small set of hands. I'd call.
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#26
12-23-2006, 08:44 PM
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Re: river fold.
[ QUOTE ]
does anyone think theres significance that its my second hand at the table? [/ QUOTE ] I think that this is very important. If you had some history or a feel of the tempo of the game it might be a completely another story. As it is i fold - as i've said previously. Also, if you added the limit and the site this hand came up that would be also useful. Finally, some said that these 30/20 guys can do those things - bluff raise the river. I've seen much different 30/20 players in the way of post flop play . Some good hand readers, some over aggro monkeys and some passive ones. So i dont think 30/20 says that much regarding post flop play.
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#28
12-23-2006, 10:56 PM
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Re: river fold.
I have not played on ftp and i have played very little on UB so i cant speak for those two. If its on absolute i would always call if its 3/6 (which i doubt) and i would be inclined to call on 25/50. I would always fold versus the average 30/20 guy on 5/10 and 10/20. On stars i fold on 10/20.
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#29
12-24-2006, 12:24 AM
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Re: river fold.
hey victor i'd probably call and figure i'm beat. by the way, what difference does it make what site you are on if you have your opponents stats (is there a diffence between a 30/20 on stars and absolute if all there other stats are the same too)?
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