river fold.

[Victor]

button is 33/23 over about 1500 hands. we dont hate eatch, ive never really noticed him. this is my 2nd hand at the table.

button raises, i 3bet k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], bb calls and button calls.

flop is q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

i bet and both call.

turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i bet, bb folds, button calls

river is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

bet, raise, i fold.

[surfdoc]

This one is super close Victor. I made one of these yesterday with an all-in player protecting the pot and he had the same hand as me and I folded 1/2 the pot. My fold was worse since the flop got checked through and I missed my CR.

You are usually toast here but the 2p2 answer is always "but you are getting 11:1" blah blah blah. I think I call this down for that reason against an aggro ish unknown.

[Victor]

ok, heres what im really wondering: do any solid players bluff raise here in his position?

[mute]

Tough one. This is cetainly a weird spot for him to be bluffing, but the hands he could have, that improved on the river are quite limited as well. TT is possible, but I'm guessing he caps, that preflop. 97 or J9 is really about the only legitimate hands, I can see him hold.

That said bluffing the river here rarely works, and this guy probably knows that, so I really think you are rarely good here. I think the fold is good, just make sure to take a note [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img], and call him next time.

[skilled]

What possible hands beat you?
AQ, QT, Q8, x6, suited clubs. out of all of these hands, I'd say q10 is the only one that wouldn't raise you on the turn, with the exception of Axsuitd clubs.

What hands would get there on the river that might warrant a bluff? open ended straight hands like 79, 57... maybe Jc10.

I think q10, Jc10, and sometimes AcJ would be the only hands that would have gotten to the river with that sequence of action. there are maybe 6 combos of q10, and 4 combos of jc10, 4 combos of AcJ. Id say someone would bluff with jc10 or AcJ less than 1/4 the time...

id estimate your like a 6:2 underdog, but since you are getting 11:1, i guess its worth a call.

Instinctually i would always call this but hate myself afterwards. I don't have the discipline to fold here, and im glad my terrible probability/estimation math atleast backs up my decision.

[skilled]

oh, also Jc9 might also have made it to the river and bluffed. more reason to call.

Keep in mind however, i am a showdown monkey.

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]
oh, also Jc9 might also have made it to the river and bluffed. more reason to call.

Keep in mind however, i am a showdown monkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, neither J9 or 97 are bluffing.

[skilled]

oh right right hehe, thats wut i get for carelessly adding something. anyhow, so lets add Jc9 to the mix, 97 of any sort shouldnt be getting to the river unless the villain is actually a n00b. so now we have 10:2. still worthy of a call imo.

[admiralfluff]

You're never good here. If he's solid, he will not be expecting you to fold here nearly often enough to mkae the play. I fold this one and the next one, and call the 3rd time he does it.

[Azalin]

Without history between you and the villain i fold here. I would not bluff raise here cause nobody folds.. Only against someone i have a lot of history (soi have a good read/feel) i MIGHT consider it. Victor if he raises the turn (planning on betting the river) what do you do?